Market Snapshot, 10:00 a.m. CT -- (VIP) -- August 23, 2013

August 23, 2013 05:04 AM
 

 

Corn futures have backed off initial highs, trading 4 to 8 cents higher

  • Corn is seeing a lift from ideas yesterday's losses were overdone, especially given the forecast for rising temps next week and dry conditions.
  • Sharp gains in the bean market are also helping to lift corn futures.
  • Day 3 of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour revealed a corn yield in Iowa of 171.94 bu. per acre, which compares to 137.27 bu. Per acre last year and a three-year average of 157.09 bu. Per acre.
  • In Minnesota, the Tour found a corn yield of 181.09 bu. Per acre, which compares to 156.19 bu. Per acre last year and a three-year average of 172.53 bu. Per acre.
  • The solid yield potential measured on the Tour is at risk if the weather doesn't cooperate.
  • December corn futures still have their work cut out in order to signal a low has been posted.
  • Gulf corn basis for immediate delivery is up a dime this morning to stand $1.35 over September futures.
     

Soybean futures have sharply extended early gains to trade 30-plus cents higher.

  • Soybean futures have extended overnight gains on concerns about building heat across the Corn Belt next week.
  • Private weather forecasters say a strengthening high pressure ridge could allow for some "ridge-rider" showers in the northern Corn Belt next week, but in the heart of the Belt, conditions are expected to be dry.
  • Traders are also reacting to below-three-year-average soybean pod counts from the Midwest Crop Tour, as scouts say weather must be ideal to maximize crop potential measured this week.
  • Day 3 of the Tour revealed Iowa soybean pod counts in a 3'x3' square of 927.30, which compares to 999.80 last year and a three-year average of 1,189.74.
  • Minnesota soybean pod counts in a 3'x3' square totaled 869.42, which compares to 934.35 last year and a three-year average of 1,099.44.
  • November soybean futures have posted a weekly high and are challenging resistance at the June high of $13.33.
  • Gulf soybean basis is steady this morning for immediate delivery to stand $1.40 over November futures.

 

SRW and HRW wheat are 3 to 5 cents higher, with HRW mixed.

  • SRW and HRW wheat enjoyed spillover from the corn and soybean markets, while HRS futures are choppy.
  • Traders in the HRS pit still have higher-than-expected Canadian wheat crop pegs from Stats Canada from earlier in the week on their minds.
  • Additional pressure on HRS is coming from harvest-related hedge pressure.
  • But with no positive fresh demand news to digest, buying across all wheat flavors is being limited to short-covering and spillover from corn this morning.
  • Wheat futures have a lot of work ahead of them to signal near-term lows have been posted.
  • Gulf SRW wheat basis is steady this morning to stand 35 cents above September futures.

 

Live cattle futures are mixed this morning as traders wait on cash trade to develop.

  • Traders are waiting on cash cattle trade to begin, which may be delayed until after the Cattle on Feed Report.
  • The report is expected to show On Feed at 95.8%, Placements at 97.5% and Marketings at 104.4% of year-ago levels.
  • Given the tightening feedlot situation, pressure is being limited in live and feeder cattle futures this morning.
  • Strength in the grain markets is limiting buying in feeder cattle futures.
  • Yesterday's Cold Storage Report was mildly supportive for the cattle market, as it showed stocks in frozen storage down from last month and slightly below expectations.
  • Boxed beef prices were also stronger this week, but movement slowed. Choice values firmed another 38 cents yesterday and Select rose 84 cents on just 113 loads.

 

Lean hog futures are mixed, with nearbys firmer on short-covering.

  • Nearby lean hog futures are due for a corrective bounce as they hold a sharp discount to the cash index.
  • But buying is being limited as traders expect seasonal price pressure to build.
  • Yesterday's Cold Storage Report revealed pork stocks in frozen storage below the previous month, but slightly above expectations.
  • Pork cutout values slipped 8 cents yesterday on lackluster movement of 385.3 loads.
  • The cash hog market is steady to mostly lower today as packers have had no difficulty securing this week's supplies and are already working on next week's needs.

 

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