Market Snapshot, 10:00 a.m. CT -- (VIP) -- November 13, 2013

November 13, 2013 04:05 AM

The corn market has seen mixed trade this morning, but at present most contracts are 1 to 3 cents lower.

  • Corn futures chopped around unchanged overnight amid a lack of market-moving news and more is being seen this morning.
  • Farmers are in the final stages of harvest. As of Sunday, USDA reports 84% of crop is harvested, which is five percentage points ahead of the average pace. Therefore, traders are not overly concerned about forecasts for showers this weekend in the western Midwest.
  • While farmers are harvesting a record-large crop, demand is being rebuilt.
  • A 5-cent jump in Gulf basis this morning signals export demand news may be ahead.
  • Chatter EPA may propose a lower ethanol mandate of the Renewable Fuels Standard in the near future is putting light pressure on the market.
  • The same can be said for news Lanworth raised its U.S. corn production forecast by 6 million bu. to 13.944 billion bu. today.

Soybean are mostly 1 to 4 cents lower, though the market has seen mixed action this morning and overnight.

  • The soybean market is seeing some light profit-taking after yesterday's gains.
  • But reminders of strong soy demand means that is the extent of selling interest.
  • USDA announced China bought 123,000 MT of soybeans for 2013-14 delivery.
  • Also, Lanworth trimmed its U.S. soybean production forecast by 6 million bu. to 3.287 billion bushels.
  • Soybean harvest was a bit less advanced than traders anticipated at 91% complete as of Nov. 10, but since harvest is in its final stages and near in line with the five-year average pace, concern about finishing it off are limited.
  • Gulf basis slipped 5 and 4 cents for November and December delivery, signaling harvest is making supplies available.

SRW and HRS wheat futures steady to 2 cents lower this morning, with HRW turning mixed.

  • Pressure on the corn market and mild gains in the U.S. dollar index are giving bears the advantage in the wheat market this morning.
  • USDA's crop condition data yesterday reminded the crop is in good shape to start the year. Emergence is running ahead of average at 84% and USDA increased the amount of the crop rated "good" to "excellent" by two percentage points to 65%.
  • When these numbers are put into Pro Farmer's weighted Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 point scale), the HRW crop improved 5 points to 369, while the SRW crop firmed 2 points to 380.
  • Also, China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNGOIC) says it expects the country to import 8 MMT of wheat in 2013-14 to make up for the shortfall of its own crop. This would be the highest level since 1995.
  • Also, firms in Australia and France slightly increased production estimates in the countries.
  • Light pressure stems from news the Home-Grown Cereals Authority says it expects harvested wheat acreage in the UK for 2014 to increase by 22% from year-ago to 1.98 million hectares.

Live cattle futures gapped lower on the open and are posting slight losses this morning. Feeder cattle futures are narrowly mixed.

  • December live cattle futures are at around at $1 premium to the bulk of last week's trade, which is pressuring futures this morning.
  • Higher showlist estimates and softer boxed beef prices so far this week means it could be tough for packers to get higher prices this week.
  • However, the fact that boxed beef prices are still at relatively lofty levels and supplies are relatively tight should prevent the cash market from any major softening.
  • Choice and Select cuts fell 53 cents and $1.20 yesterday, but this spurred strong movement of 267 loads.
  • Weaker corn prices have encouraged light short-covering in the feeder cattle market.

Lean hog futures are posting slight to moderate losses this morning.

  • Hog weights and numbers continue to mount, but packers are still enjoying wide profit margins, which gives them incentive to keep kill lines full. This is keeping the cash hog market mostly steady this morning.
  • Average hog weights rose 1.1 lbs. last week in Iowa and southern Minnesota.
  • But the cash hog index continues to slide, keeping it at around a $1.50 discount to December futures.
  • The pork cutout value slid 51 cents yesterday, but movement surged after the Veterans Day holiday to 679.76 loads.
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