Market Snapshot, 10:00 am CT (VIP) -- September 5, 2013

September 5, 2013 05:13 AM

Corn futures are posting losses of mostly 8 to 12 cents.

  • Corn futures are seeing followthrough selling today as the market continues to brush off stressful late-season weather conditions.
  • Adding light pressure is the five-day forecast that calls for light, scattered showers and the NWS 6- to 10-day outlook that calls for above-normal precip for Minnesota and the far eastern Corn Belt. Again, the market is ignoring the high temps that are also in both outlooks.
  • Meanwhile, private crop watchers continue to lower their crop pegs. INTL FC Stone lowered its peg of the crop by 51 million bu. to 13.942 billion bu. on a national average yield of 156.4 bu. per acre.
  • The market is also not concerned about intensifying drought in the Midwest.
  • Traders are also ignoring news the head of rural development of China's Development and Research Center says the country may lower its self-sufficiency rate for corn from 95% to 80%. If realized, corn imports could eventually rise to 20 MMT to 30 MMT.


September soybean futures have improved to trade just 2 cents lower, but most other contracts are 5 to 8 cents lower.

  • Followthrough selling is pressuring most soybean contracts today. The move in November beans into the August gap area has also encouraged some technical selling.
  • While the front-month contract is benefiting from concerns about tight supplies as it goes through delivery, deferred futures are under pressure as the market believes light rain chances are enough to "save" the crop.
  • Some weather updates raised five-day rainfall accumulation amounts for parts of Iowa.
  • On the other hand, brokerage firm INTL FC Stone joined a number of crop watchers in lowering its soybean production forecast. It now pegs the bean crop at 3.146 billion bu. on a national average yield of 41.2 bu. per acre.


SRW wheat futures are 8 to 9 cents lower, while HRW is mostly 6 to 8 cents lower and HRS is seeing losses of 3 to 5 cents.

  • Wheat is again following the corn market lower. Strength in the U.S. dollar index is adding to the negative tone.
  • Gulf basis firmed 10 cents for last half September delivery, but it fell 5 to 9 cents for October through December delivery.
  • News from Russia's deputy ag minister the county may export less wheat this year than previously predicted is helping to limit pressure. The ministry forecasts 2013-14 wheat exports at 18 MMT to 20 MMT and production at 90 MMT.


Live cattle futures are under pressure. Feeder cattle futures are also posting slight losses.

  • Improvement in the boxed beef market this week and tighter showlist estimates could grease the wheels for higher cash cattle trade this week.
  • But trade is not expected to take place until Friday. Initial bids in the Texas and Kansas are at $121 -- down $2 from last week's action -- while asking prices are at $125 to $126.
  • Buying interest in futures is limited as they are already at a premium to last week's trade. This encouraging traders to reduce some of this premium today.
  • Yesterday boxed beef movement surged to 230 loads and this came on an uptick in prices. Choice cuts firmed 46 cents and Select rose 21 cents.
  • Nevertheless, traders continue to question how consumers and retailers will respond to historically high beef prices now that summer grilling has wrapped up.
  • Light profit-taking is being seen in feeder cattle futures despite pressure on corn.


Lean hog futures gapped sharply higher on the open, but the market has since pared gains to trade mixed.

  • Bullish enthusiasm after yesterday's technically strong day of trade encouraged followthrough buying on the open. Nearby contracts forged to new contract highs, but profit-taking has kicked in.
  • Fundamentally, lean hogs are benefiting from a surge in pork movement yesterday as well as tighter near-term supplies due to a decline in hog weights. This is spurring steady to firmer cash hog bids.
  • But this will likely be a temporary factor, as supplies will build seasonally.
  • The front-month contract has narrowed its discount to the cash hog market to just under $2.
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