Market Snapshot, 8:30 am CT -- July 18, 2012

July 18, 2012 03:36 AM
 

Corn is mostly 4 to 6 cents lower amid profit-taking.

  • Corn is weaker on followthrough from yesterday's choppy finish on talk that China has canceled some purchases of U.S. corn.
  • The heat dome is expected to move westward to allow some showers into the eastern Corn Belt, but amounts will be light and daily high temps are expected to continue to trend over 90 degrees well into next week.
  • A firmer U.S. dollar index is putting pressure on commodities.

 

Soybeans are mostly 1 to 5 cents weaker on dollar strength and profit-taking.

  • A rain would still benefit the soybean crop, as the key pod-filling stage is ahead for most of the crop. But concerns that stressful conditions will linger in August is limiting pressure to profit-taking this morning.
  • Forecasts for rains of mostly 0.25 inch in the western Corn Belt and up to 0.75 in the eastern Belt the next five days are making it more difficult for beans to rally this morning.
  • Gulf basis is steady to firmer this morning, which is helping to lift the August contract off its low.

 

Wheat is mostly 3 to 9 cents lower at all three exchanges on spillover from neighboring pits, with deferreds seeing scattered buying.

  • Spillover from profit-taking in corn and soybeans and strength in the U.S. dollar index this morning is limiting buying in wheat futures.
  • Meanwhile, traders remain concerned about global crop prospects, as additional rains in areas of Europe are raising quality concerns and rising temps in Russia and Ukraine are adding to drought worries.

 

Cattle futures are called to open steady to lower in reaction to lower cash trade.

  • Cash cattle trade is thought to be finished, as producers were willing to move cattle $1 to $2 lower than last week at $113. August live cattle are trading at around a $2.50 premium to the cash market, opening more near-term downside risk for the contract.
  • Meanwhile, beef prices were 61 to 67 cents higher yesterday on strong movement of 204 loads. Further improvement is needed to raise expectations a near-term low has been posted.
  • Feeder futures could enjoy some much-needed short-covering given weakness in the corn market this morning.

 

Lean hog futures are called to open mixed on hopes of a low in the pork market.

  • The pork market is showing more signs of bottoming, as pork cutout values rose $1.22 yesterday on strong movement of 111.3 loads.
  • The cash hog market is still expected to be steady to $1 lower today, as packers are working to improve negative profit margins.
  • August lean hogs are trading at around a $9 discount to the cash index, which should help to limit pressure on nearby futures.
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