Market Snapshot, 8:30 am CT -- July 30, 2012

July 30, 2012 03:50 AM
 

Corn is mostly 13 to 23 cents higher amid ongoing drought concerns.

  • Weather remains traders' focus. December corn futures have moved to a fresh contract high on disappointment over scattered weekend rains.
  • Traders expect this afternoon's crop condition report to reflect continued deterioration.
  • This week's forecast includes just limited rainfall chances late in the week and above-normal temps -- a combination that will maintain stress on the crop.

 

Soybeans are 31 to 40-plus cents higher on continued crop concerns and disappointing weekend rains.

  • Futures gapped higher on the open over ongoing weather concerns, as there's little meaningful rain in the forecast for early August as the crop tries to fill pods.
  • Traders are expecting another downtick in crop condition ratings this afternoon as rains last week were too spotty and light to have a positive impact on the soybean crop.
  • With the crop remaining under stress, traders are expecting private crop forecasters to continue to lower crop estimates.
  • China halted sales of state-owned soybeans last week as stockpiles sold out. But sales are set to resume this week, with 400,000 metric tons (MT) up for auction.

 

Wheat is posting double-digit gains mostly in the teens on spillover from corn and soybeans, along with global weather concerns.

  • As goes corn, goes wheat. Weather concerns that are boosting prices for corn are supplying spillover for wheat -- as the market works to ration feed sources.
  • Crop concerns remain in the Black Sea region as drought is lowering production prospects, especially in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
  • There is heightened talk Russia's government could sell some stocks from its intervention supplies to stabilize domestic prices in regions that are most affected by drought.

 

Cattle futures are called to open mixed on followthrough buying from last week's late gains and concerns about demand.

  • August live cattle are trading at around a $5 premium to last week's $114 cash cattle trade, which could weigh on nearby futures this morning.
  • Last week's cash trade was light and boxed beef prices ended the week under pressure. Unless the product market improves this week, futures could face fresh selling.
  • Feeder cattle futures are called lower in reaction to new contract highs in new-crop corn.

 

Lean hog futures are called to open mixed as traders are cautious about adding long positions amid cash uncertainty.

  • August lean hog futures are trading at a slight discount to the cash index, which may support the lead-month contract.
  • The cash hog market is expected to be mostly steady today, with some locations still in need of animals while others are working to improve margins.
  • Ongoing strength in the corn market is supportive of deferred futures, as traders have scaled back their farrowing expectations for later in the year.
     
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