Market Snapshot, 8:30 am CT (VIP) -- January 29, 2013

January 29, 2013 02:40 AM
 

Corn futures are narrowly mixed this morning amid a lack of fresh news, with nearbys slightly higher.

  • Price action is lackluster ahead of the start of open-outcry trade due to a lack of fresh news.
  • Hot and dry weather across Argentina's corn belt is stressing the pollinating crop, but there is some light to moderate rain in the forecast later in the week.
  • Recent precip across the U.S. Corn Belt is taking a bite out of soil moisture deficits, although the Palmer Drought Index shows there is still a long ways to go.
  • March corn futures are pivoting around $7.30 this morning in lackluster trade. That is near the top of the three-week consolidation range.
  • The U.S. dollar index is weakening, which is supportive of commodity buying this morning.

 

Soybean futures have strengthened to trade 3 to 7 cents higher on concerns about crop prospects in southern Brazil.

  • Soybean futures strengthened late yesterday and are building on those gains this morning as traders focus on the tight global supply situation.
  • Growing conditions across Brazil remain a mixed bag, with favorable conditions continuing to benefit filling beans in northern areas and hot and dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul stressing the crop.
  • March soybean futures are pivoting around yesterday's high of $14.52 1/2. Next resistance is last weeks' high of $14.60 3/4.

 

Chicago and Kansas City wheat futures are marginally to a penny higher this morning, with Minneapolis narrowly mixed.

  • Wheat futures need a dose of fresh demand news to excite bulls. Lacking this, wheat is being supported by light spillover from neighboring pits.
  • Russia's deputy ag minister says it will soon officially cut its 2012-13 grain export forecast to 14 MMT from 15.5 MMT and the country plans to sell another 3 MMT of intervention stocks into the domestic market.
  • The condition of the winter wheat crops across the Central and Southern Plains deteriorated in January, as outlined by monthly crop and weather bulletins.
  • Slight weakness in the dollar index is encouraging light buying in crude oil and gold futures, which is supportive of commodity buying this morning.

 

Live cattle futures are called to open steady to higher on followthrough buying and cash optimism.

  • Following yesterday's sharp gains that were inspired by a bullish Cattle on Feed Report and news Japan has approved a rule to import beef from animals aged under 30 months, live cattle futures are expected to see light followthrough buying.
  • Tighter market-ready supplies and strength in futures has traders anticipating higher cash cattle trade this week.
  • Choice beef values firmed 17 cents yesterday and Select was up 56 cents on strong movement to start the week at 189 loads, but packers' profit margins remain well in the red.
  • Live and feeder cattle futures have corrected the oversold condition of the market and have confirmed near-term lows have been posted.

 

Lean hog futures are called mixed, but they should favor a firmer tone due to tightening supplies.

  • The cash hog market is called steady to $1 higher due to tightening market-ready supplies. Packers are in need of supplies after poor road conditions yesterday slowed marketings.
  • Pork cutout values improved 52 cents yesterday to lift packers' profit margins, although margins remain in the red.
  • Lean hog futures may benefit from spillover support from live cattle.
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