Market Snapshot, 8:30 am CT (VIP) -- November 1, 2012

November 1, 2012 03:41 AM
 

Corn futures are 1 to 3 cents higher on spillover from soybeans.

  • With little fresh news for the corn market to digest this morning and outside markets mixed, corn is finding direction from the soybean market.
  • Tight supplies are a known, but they are still helping to limit downside risk. Upside potential is being limited by a lack of fresh demand news.
  • Gulf basis is steady to 3 cents lower this morning -- reaffirming slowed demand.

 

Soybean futures are 13 to 16 cents higher on rumors of Chinese demand.

  • Talk China is back buying U.S. soybeans provided support for the soy complex overnight. No fresh demand news has been confirmed, but Gulf basis for immediate delivery is 2 cents firmer this morning.
  • Soybeans are also being supported by indications China's economy is strengthening as the official purchasing mangers' index rose in October to signify expansion.
  • January soybean futures moved to a weekly high and are challenging the top of the month-long consolidation range.

 

Wheat futures at all three exchanges are mostly 3 to 6 cents higher on concerns about the HRW wheat crop.

  • The first winter wheat crop condition rating of the season showed the crop in worse shape than year-ago. Our weighted crop condition index shows the HRW crop down 19 points from year-ago while SRW is up 14 points from year-ago.
  • This morning's National Drought Monitor shows little change in the drought situation across the Central and Southern Plains. Some expansion was noted in Oklahoma while some improvement was reported in Texas. Kansas drought remained unchanged.
  • Outside markets are providing little direction for the commodity markets this morning, as the U.S. dollar index has been choppy as investors await tomorrow's key monthly employment data.

 

Live cattle futures are expected to be steady to weaker on lower beef prices.

  • Live cattle futures are expected to face pressure this morning as traders react to yesterday's sharp drop in boxed beef values.
  • Choice beef values slipped $3.40 and Select declined $1.23, but movement improved to 228 loads.
  • Cash cattle trade has largely been seen between $126 and $127 so far this week, which is steady to $1 lower than last week. Remaining feedlots are waiting on higher bids.
  • Feeder cattle futures are expected to be lower this morning due to strength in corn.

 

Lean hog futures are called mixed, with nearbys supported by strength in the pork market.

  • Pork cutout values improved 99 cents yesterday to lift packers' profit margins and improve demand for cash hogs.
  • While supplies are plentiful, some packers in the eastern Corn Belt may increase bids today as they are working on a large Saturday kill to offset down time earlier this week due to Hurricane Sandy.
  • December lean hog futures are trading at around a $5.75 discount to the cash index, which is also supportive for nearby futures this morning.
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