Market Snapshot, 8:30 am CT (VIP) -- October 18, 2012

October 18, 2012 03:41 AM
 

Corn futures are 1 to 5 cents higher on light followthrough buying.

  • Corn is enjoying light followthrough from yesterday's late-session recovery, although buying is being limited by strength in the U.S. dollar. Dollar strength is also weighing on crude oil and gold futures.
  • This morning's weekly export sales report showed sales of 166,700 MT, which came within expectations. The lead buyer was Japan, which raises expectations the country will increase purchases as they are thought to be short-bought.
  • Gulf corn basis is steady this morning, suggesting the export market is quiet.
  • The extended weather outlook from CPC raises concerns about lingering drought in the western Corn Belt, which doesn't bode well for soil moisture next spring.

 

Soybean futures are 11 to 15 cents higher on followthrough buying amid ideas the downside has been overdone.

  • Soy complex futures are seeing followthrough from yesterday's late-session surge, as well as from technical-based buying as futures bounced from important support levels near early July lows.
  • This morning's weekly export sales report showed sales of 523,400 MT for 2012-13 and 1,800 MT for 2013-14. Combined, the tally came in below expectations, but China remains the lead buyer. Still, total commitments are running 35% ahead of year-ago and USDA projects exports to be 7% below last season's tally.
  • Outside markets are negative this morning, as the U.S. dollar index is stronger after China's 3rd quarter GDP marked the seventh consecutive month of slowed economic growth.

 

Wheat futures are 4 to 8 cents higher on spillover from neighboring pits, although buying is tempered by negative outside markets.

  • Wheat futures are enjoying followthrough from yesterday's late-session recovery as well as help from neighboring pits. But negative outside markets are tempering gains.
  • Additional support comes from this morning's weekly export sales report. Sales of 410,000 MT were above expectations. Traders suspect this could be the start of sales improvements given tightening supplies in the Black Sea region.
  • This morning's Drought Monitor showed improvement across the Central and Southern Plains, which is helping to sustain the establishing winter wheat crop.
  • But the CPC's extended weather outlook calls for persistent drought across the Central and Southern Plains.

 

Live cattle futures are called higher on continued strength in the boxed beef market.

  • Traders are still waiting on cash cattle trade to begin, which could be delayed until after Friday afternoon's Cattle on Feed Report.
  • Anticipation of tightening supplies is also supportive. The report is expected to show On Feed at 97.8%, Placements at 85% and Marketings at 89.8% of year-ago levels.
  • Ongoing strength in the boxed beef market and this week's tighter showlist has traders looking for $1 to $2 higher cash cattle trade compared to last week's $125 trade.
  • Choice beef values rose 61 cents yesterday to $195.71 per cwt. Movement was strong at 214 loads.

 

Lean hog futures are called mixed, with nearbys expected to find followthrough from yesterday's gains.

  • Nearby lean hog futures are expected to build on yesterday's strong performance, while deferred futures are expected to be choppy amid spreading.
  • Packers have seen profit margins improve this week as pork cutout values have trended higher and the cash hog market has been mostly steady. But given plentiful supplies, cash bids are called steady again today.
  • Pork cutout values softened just 7 cents yesterday, but movement was strong at 103.75 loads.
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