Market Snapshot, 8:30 am CT (VIP) -- October 4, 2012

October 4, 2012 03:52 AM
 

Corn futures are 2 to 7 cents higher on spillover from soybean futures.

  • Corn is enjoying spillover from the neighboring soybean pit, as well as concerns about tightening supplies.
  • This morning's weekly export sales data showed corn sales of 326,900 metric tons (MT), which was within expectations.
  • The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) cut its forecast for world cereal production in 2012 by 0.4% to 2.286 billion MT, mainly due to prolonged dry conditions causing a smaller corn crop in central and southeastern Europe.

 

Soybean futures have extended early gains on bigger-than-expected weekly export sales.

  • Nearby soybean futures are 20-plus cents higher in reaction to this morning's weekly export sales data that showed soybean sales of 1,296,600 MT for 2012-13 and sales of 6,300 MT for 2013-14. China was the lead buyer with purchases of 1,025,000 MT for the current marketing year, including 225,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,000 MT.
  • Export commitments for 2012-13 are running 40% ahead of year-ago, which is well above the needed pace as USDA projects exports to be 22.4% below the previous marketing year.
  • November soybean futures have returned above $15.50, but remain within the bounds of the downtrend established from the September high.

 

Wheat futures are mostly 4 to 6 cents higher on spillover from soybeans and the Stats Canada wheat estimate.

  • Wheat is enjoying spillover from neighboring pits, as well as a lower-than-expected Canadian wheat crop peg from Statistics Canada. The agency pegs its wheat crop at 26.733 MMT.
  • Meanwhile, traders remain concerned about establishment of the winter wheat crop in the Southern Plains. While recent rains are beneficial, this morning's National Drought Monitor shows little drought relief and warns of the dry near-term forecast.
  • FAO’s latest forecast for global wheat production in 2012 stands at 663 million MT, 5.2% below last year’s level. But it says very early indications for 2013 signal a recovery in production.
  • This morning's weekly export sales data showed wheat sales below expectations at 307,000 MT.

 

Live cattle futures are called to open mixed as traders wait on cash trade to begin.

  • Live cattle futures are expected to be choppy this morning as opinions are mixed about this week's cash cattle trade. While beef movement has been solid this week, Choice beef values are lower than week-ago.
  • This week's market-ready supplies are larger than last week, but cash sources say packers' demand is higher this week.
  • Feeder cattle futures are expected to be weaker on slight strength in the corn market.

 

Lean hog futures are called slightly higher on strong packer demand.

  • Pork cutout values slipped 79 cents yesterday but are still up sharply from week-ago levels. Plus, packers' profit margins remain in the black.
  • The cash hog market is expected to be steady to firmer across the Midwest today as packers work to secure supplies that have tightened from week-ago levels.
  • Traders are also noting a recent pick up in export movement as there are concerns about overall tightness of global pork supplies in the year ahead.
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