Market Snapshot, Noon CT -- (VIP) -- August 21, 2013

August 21, 2013 06:59 AM
 

September corn is up around a dime, with the rest of the market 3 to 5 cents higher on weather concerns.

  • Corn futures remain supported by concerns about building heat and its impact on yields as the crop is filling.
  • Day 2 of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour revealed a corn yield in Indiana of 167.36 bu. per acre, which compares to 113.25 bu. per acre last year and a three-year average of 141.14 bu. per acre. But scouts did note the need for rain.
  • The western leg of the Tour found a Nebraska corn yield of 154.93 bu. per acre, which compares to 131.79 bu. per acre last year and a three-year average of 147.93 bu. per acre. Scouts deemed this as an "ordinary" Nebraska corn crop.
  • Traders are monitoring route reports from Iowa and Illinois today, with drought stress more noticeable.
  • After surging this morning, Gulf corn basis for immediate delivery is up 15 cents to stand $1.25 over September futures to reflect tightening supplies and some possible demand news.
  • Weekly ethanol production fell 13,000 barrels per day (bpd) the week ended Aug. 16 to 844,000 bpd. Ethanol stocks rose 57,000 barrels to 16.48 million barrels.

 

Soybean futures are off their daily highs, but continue to post double-digit gains.

  • Soybean futures continue to draw support from weather concerns, as heat is building across the Corn Belt, which is raising concerns about filling soybeans.
  • Yesterday's NWS forecast for Aug. 26-30 calls for above-normal temps across the Corn Belt, with normal to mostly above-normal precip. Heat is also expected to intensify in the upper Midwest late this week, though scattered showers are possible.
  • Day 2 of the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour revealed Indiana soybean pod counts in a 3'x3' square at 1,185.14, which compares to 1,033.24 last year and a three-year average of 1,136.48.
  • Nebraska soybean pod counts in a 3'x3' square totaled 1,138.94, which compares to 894.43 last year and a three-year average of 1,162.42.
  • Drought-related crop stress is more noticeable today as crop scouts on the Tour travel across central Illinois and western Iowa.
  • Traders are brushing off news Statistics Canada expects record-large canola production of 14.734, as the tally fell a bit short of the average pre-report guess.

 

SRW and HRW wheat futures are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher, with HRS 1 to 6 cents lower.

  • Wheat is finding spillover support from the corn market, with strength in the dollar index limiting gains.
  • Otherwise, there's little fresh news for the market to digest.
  • Some of the pressure on spring wheat futures is coming after Stats Canada pegged all wheat production at 30.56 MMT, which came in above expectations and 3.357 MMT above year-ago.
  • Gulf SRW wheat basis is steady this morning to stand 30 cents over September futures.
  • Harvest-related hedge pressure is limiting buying interest in the HRS market, although some rains are delaying harvest.

 

Live and feeder cattle futures continue to trade mixed.

  • August live cattle are slightly higher to trade at around a dollar premium to last week's $123 cash cattle trade. But the rest of the market is slightly lower.
  • Showlist estimates are down and supplies are expected to tighten going forward. Friday's Cattle on Feed Report is expected to serve as a reminder of this.
  • But concerns about the beef market are limiting buying in live cattle futures. Choice values are 33 cents lower this morning and Select is down 66 cents, with 122 loads changing hands.
  • Strength in the corn market is limiting buying in feeder futures this morning.

 

Lean hog futures remain moderately lower on building supplies.

  • Lean hog futures are being pressured by building pressure in the cash market as market-ready supplies increase seasonally.
  • While a few plants are in need of loads for Friday and Saturday's kill, most have had no difficulty securing supplies and cash bids are mostly 50 cents to $1 lower.
  • Pork cutout values have slipped 98 cents this morning, although movement is solid at 278.1 loads.
  • But with October lean hogs trading at around a $15 discount to the cash index, pressure should not build into the close.
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