Market Snapshot, Noon CT (VIP) -- August 15, 2013

August 15, 2013 07:08 AM
 

Corn futures continue to hold 13- to 17-cent gains through the March 2015 contract.

  • The trade is absorbing bullish news on the size of this year's Prevent Plant acreage.
  • Initial Farm Service Agency data shows corn prevented planting acreage at 3.411 million, with big declines coming in North Dakota, Iowa and Minnesota.
  • While they process the idea total planted acres is lower than previously thought, their attention is turning to the continuing dryness in the areas most heavily impacted by Prevent Plant.
  • The National Drought Monitor shows drought has spread across Iowa and into central Illinois. This heightens concerns about warmer temps in the forecast for the upper Midwest next week and below-normal precip chances for the western Corn Belt.
  • The Climate Prediction Center's 90-day outlook calls for the above-normal precip for the central and eastern Corn belt, which could impact harvest progress.
  • This morning's Weekly Export Sales Report impressed as a net sales reduction of 59,100 MT for 2012-13 were more than offset by sales of 836,100 MT for 2013-13.
  • Gulf basis is 6 cents stronger for last-half August delivery and steady for other delivery periods at midday.

 

Soybean futures are 8 to 27 cents higher in the front seven months.

  • News of a high number of Prevent Plant acres, rising crop concerns and rising export business is pushing soybean futures higher.
  • Traders are shrugging off data from the National Oilseed Processors Association that shows U.S. soybean crush declined 2.3% last month to 116.3 million bushels, versus 119.051 million bushels in June. Analysts had forecast a monthly crush of 116.4 million bu. ahead of the report.
  • Today's Weekly Export Sales Report showed a net soybean sales reductions of 10,500 MT for 2012-13, but these were more than offset by impressive sales of 1,893,400 MT for 2013-14, with China accounting for most of the business.
  • Traders are looking at dryness building in the central and western Corn Belt, and the forecast for dry conditions to continue next week along with a rise in temperature in the upper Midwest.
  • Traders are processing news from the Farm Service Agency data, which shows soybean prevented plant acres at 1.619 million.
  • Gulf soybean basis is unchanged from earlier trading with the exception of November delivery which is 8 cents lower.

 

Wheat futures are 4 to 8 cents higher for all flavors at midday.

  • Spillover support from corn and soybeans continues to lift wheat futures.
  • Tempering bullish attitudes is a disappointing Weekly Export Sales Report. USDA reports sales of 490,100 MT for 2013-14 and 5,500 MT for 2014-15, which are below expectations and adds to the view U.S. wheat is losing out on business to the Black Sea region.
  • Strategie Grain raised its estimate of the 2013-14 European Union soft wheat harvest by 0.8 MMT to 134.2 MMT.
  • Countering this is news planted wheat area in England fell to its lowest level in three decades.
  • The market is shrugging off a weaker U.S. dollar index as it reacts to heavy losses in the equity markets.
  • Gulf SRW basis is steady versus the early morning trade.

 

Live cattle futures are slightly weaker while feeder cattle futures are slightly to moderately lower.

  • Heavy losses in equity markets has traders taking light profits.
  • The release of positive jobs data this morning is pressing the stock market lower on ideas the Fed may begin to taper its bond buying program. But the positive jobs figures also mean potential rising consumer demand.
  • The cash market continues to provide no direction as the standoff continues. Packers are offering bids below last week's levels, which owners continue to reject. Owners believe a firmer cash trade compared with last week's $121 action on the Southern Plains is in order with showlists down and wholesale prices firmer.
  • The beef market is offering some support this morning with Choice beef up 70 cents and Select beef up $1.05. Movement, however, is a low 73 loads after strong movement yesterday.
  • Weekly beef export sales of 12,700 MT improved from the week prior and exports of 16,100 MT were a marketing year high.
  • Strength in the corn market is encouraging profit-taking in feeder cattle futures.

 

Lean hog futures are posting slight to sharp losses at midday, with nearby contracts featuring the greater losses.

  • Profit-taking after recent strong gains and a test of support in the gap area left yesterday is underway today.
  • Also contributing to the negative attitude are the heavy losses in equity market.
  • The pork cutout value plunged $3.05 today and movement has eased to 165.6 loads. The trade continues to look for wholesale prices to decline seasonally after the Labor Day featuring is concluded.
  • Weekly pork exports sales of 8,500 MT rose 3,700 MT over the week prior and exports of 12,400 MT were a marketing year high.
  • Cash hog bids are mixed today as better-than-expected demand is being seen in the eastern Corn Belt, while western Belt locations are paying steady to lower prices.
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