Market Snapshot, Noon CT (VIP) -- July 15, 2013

July 15, 2013 07:22 AM
 

Corn futures are posting losses of mostly 4 to 9 cents this morning.

  • A shift in the forecast to less heat and more rain has traders on the sell side.
  • The 6- to 10-day forecast from the National Weather Service calls for below-normal temps and above-normal precip from Iowa into the eastern Corn Belt.
  • Traders anticipate this afternoon's crop condition ratings from USDA will show 68% of the nation's corn crop as rated "good" to "excellent." Last year only 31% of the crop was rated good to excellent.
  • Weekly corn export inspections of 16.280 million bu. nearly doubled the previous week's tally and topped expectations. This points to improved demand.
  • Limited support is coming from the announcement this morning from USDA that another 120,000-MT corn sale to unknown destinations.
  • Strength in the U.S. dollar index is cited as a negative.
  • Weakness in basis, signaling increasing farmer movement, also pressured futures this morning, though basis held steady at midday.

 

Soybean futures are trading fractionally to 3 cents higher in new crop contracts and 18 cents higher in the lead August contract after posting losses overnight.

  • Prices continue to find positive footing from signs recent losses were overdone.
  • Data from the National Oilseed Processors Association is providing support. It shows June crush of 119 million bushels. While down from May, the figure is higher than expectations -- the second month in a row the actual number has topped expectations.
  • The slow development of the bean crop is also beginning to get some attention. USDA will provide an update on this at 3:00 p.m. CT today. Traders are looking for USDA to report 67% of the crop is rated good to excellent, in line with a week earlier.
  • Some negative pressure is coming from changes in the forecast to cooler and wetter than indicated Friday.
  • Bulls were also encouraged by the November contract's ability to bounce off support in the $12.50 area.
  • Somewhat tempering buying enthusiasm is news China's second quarter GDP came in at 7.5% growth, which was in line with expectations but down 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter. This raises demand concerns going forward.
  • Weekly soybean export inspections of 3.670 million bu. met expectations.
  • The stronger U.S. dollar index is providing some negative pressure.

 

Wheat futures are down 8 to 12 cents in Chicago and 8 to 10 cents in Kansas City and Minneapolis.

  • Profit-taking is underway as strength in the U.S. dollar index provides some pressure.
  • With the Kansas harvest winding down, the market needs a steady stream of demand news to maintain gains and that news is lacking today.
  • But China National Grain & Oils Information Center projects the country's imports will total 5 MMT, up 73% from year-ago.
  • Gulf basis is 4 cents higher for July delivery, 1 cent higher for August and unchanged for later delivery months.
  • Weekly wheat export inspections of 24.458 million bu. represents solid demand. The tally met expectations.

 

Live cattle futures continue to post moderate gains while feeder cattle futures are sharply higher.

  • Ideas supplies will tighten going forward has traders on the buy side this morning.
  • Late last week, cash cattle trade took place at steady prices of $119, whereas steady to lower trade was anticipated. The market appears to have friendly cash cattle expectations as traders are extending the $3-plus premium the front-month contract holds to these prices.
  • However, Choice boxed beef slipped 38 cents this morning to $191.15, while Select cuts firmed 14 cents to $183.81. Movement is a poor 81 loads.
  • The firmer tone to live cattle and thoughts of tightening supplies has feeder cattle futures higher.

 

Lean hog futures are posting slight to moderate gains at midday.

  • Traders have shifted to the buy side on ideas the downside was overdone last week.
  • However, pork cutout value fell $2.34 and movement is a light 142.6 loads this morning.
  • August futures became the lead contract at noon today as the July contract expired. It carries a wide discount to the cash hog index. That discount is providing some buying support.
  • Cash hog bids are steady to weaker today as most plants are well supplied for near-term needs. Recent pork product market declines have pulled packer cutting margins back into the red.
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