Market Snapshot, Noon CT (VIP) -- June 10, 2013

June 10, 2013 07:13 AM
 

Corn futures are mostly 9 to 12 cents weaker lower through the September 2014 futures contract.

  • Rain over the weekend wasn't as heavy as expected and planting progress was made in some parts of the wet western Corn Belt. With the forecast calling for warmer and drier conditions, traders have become less concerned about yield prospects.
  • In addition to the more favorable weather forecast, traders expect this afternoon's crop progress report will show 95% of the intended crop is in the ground as of June 9 and that 64% of the planted crop will be rated as "good" to "excellent."
  • Today's export inspections report provided additional pressure. USDA says 6.365 million bu. were inspected, which were down nearly 5.3 million bu. from last week's tally and below expectations.
  • Spillover from losses in soybean futures and strength in the U.S. dollar index are also pressuring corn.
  • December futures have found support at last week's low at about $5.40.
  • Gulf basis is unchanged at midday after showing gains earlier today.

 

Soybean futures are down 11 cents to 14 cents in nearby contracts and 7 cent to 9 cents weaker in the deferred contracts.

  • Weekend rains were lighter than expected, prompting traders to take profits.
  • In addition, the weather forecast calls for warmer temps and somewhat drier conditions, which is adding to this morning's negative tone.
  • Traders expect this afternoon's crop progress report from USDA to show 71% of the intended soybean crop is planted. But traders also feel soaked soils should help crop development once the seed gets in the ground.
  • Traders view today's export inspections from USDA as neutral. The report showed 3.059 million bu. passed inspection, within expectations.
  • News China's soybean imports in May of 5.1 MMT declined 3.4% from year-ago is also price-negative. These were up 28.1% from April, however.
  • Gulf basis is unchanged at midday.

 

Wheat futures have trimmed early losses to trade 7 to 9 cents lower in Chicago and Kansas City and 1 to 7 cents weaker at Minneapolis.

  • Losses in both corn and soybeans futures along with strength in the U.S. dollar index are pressuring the wheat market.
  • The forecast for winter wheat country calls for hot, dry temps, which is not favorable for the crop, but harvest is getting started and the resulting hedge pressure will keep HRW prices under pressure.
  • The weather forecast is not ideal for the Northern Plains but the selling pressure across the grain complex is leading to losses at the Minneapolis exchange.
  • Crop conditions and planting progress will be updated by USDA later this afternoon.
  • Exports inspections for the week ended June 6 came in well above trade expectations at 24.37 million bushels. This helped futures trim losses.
  • Ukraine's ag ministry forecasts production in the country will rebound to 53 MMT and 54 MMT, which compares to 46.2 MMT last year.
  • Gulf basis is unchanged at midday.

 

Live cattle futures are marking mostly moderate losses while feeder cattle futures are slightly higher.

  • Live cattle futures are lower are traders continue to believe demand will prove to be an issue for high-priced beef and on the light cash cattle trade late Friday at prices mostly $2 below the week prior at $122 in the Southern Plains.
  • But the boxed beef market firmed this morning. Choice boxed beef rose $1.52 to $203.09 and Select rose 35 cents to $183.72. Movement also improved to a moderate 124 loads.
  • Traders continue to believe beef prices will struggle and are content to keep futures at a discount to cash.
  • Feeder cattle futures are benefiting from the downswing in corn prices.

 

Lean hog futures gapped higher on the open, have traded limit higher and are holding strong gains.

  • Unconfirmed rumors China is buying U.S. pork has traders strongly bullish this morning.
  • July futures left a wide upside gap on the chart and the contract has traded above resistance at the February high and at levels not seen since Jan. 3.
  • Cash supplies continue to tighten seasonally and consumer demand appears to be holding with the pork cutout rising $1.28 this morning. Movement is a solid 167.4 loads.
  • The cash hog market is steady to firmer today.
  • The bullish rumors have traders ignoring the stronger U.S. dollar index.
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