Market Snapshot, Noon CT (VIP) -- June 17, 2013

June 17, 2013 06:42 AM
 

July corn futures are 11 cents higher, with the rest of the market 3 to 5 cents higher.

  • Corn futures are pulling support from the price reversal in the wheat market. That's encouraging short-covering in corn futures.
  • Tight old-crop supplies are lending support to the front-month contract, with additional support coming from stronger-than-expected weekly export inspections of 14.144 million bushels.
  • New-crop futures are finding support from concerns about crop prospects, although traders viewed weekend weather as favorable.
  • There is rain in the forecast for later in the week, with normal to above-normal temps expected to continue.
  • Traders expect this afternoon's crop condition report to reflect slight improvement in the crop after better-than-expected weekend weather that included much-needed sunshine to boost crop development.
  • December corn is working on a bullish reversal but needs a high-range close and followthrough buying tomorrow to signal a near-term low is in the works.

 

July and August soybeans are holding around unchanged, with the rest of the market 6 to 10 cents lower amid bull spreading.

  • Tight old-crop supplies are providing support for nearby futures, although this morning's weekly export inspections report reflected light demand.
  • Meanwhile, NOPA reports May crush at 122.6 million bu., coming in well above expectations. Soyoil stocks of 2.469 billion lbs. came in below expectations.
  • Traders view weekend weather as mostly favorable and are interested to see what the first condition ratings of the season will reveal.
  • Warmer temps this week are expected to boost planting progress and crop emergence. But rains are expected to return late-week and next week's outlook calls for above-normal precip across most of the Corn Belt.
  • Traders look for this afternoon's crop progress report to show soybean planting at 86% complete, which would be up 15 percentage points from last week. If realized, it would mean there are still around 10.8 million intended soybean acres to plant.

 

Wheat futures are mostly 2 to 5 cents higher at midday, with nearby Kansas City leading gains.

  • Wheat futures are getting a boost from ideas recent losses were overdone, which is leading to short-covering.
  • This morning's weekly export inspections report showed wheat inspections of 21.592 million bu., which was within expectations.
  • Harvest-related delays are also providing support, as rains are moving across the Central and Southern Plains.
  • USDA on Friday said the GMO wheat discovery in Oregon appears to be an isolated incident and confirmed no traces of the unapproved wheat has been found in the commercial supply. USDA has also provided our trading partners with test kits to detect GMO wheat in shipments.
  • But Japan and South Korea continue to ban shipments of U.S. western white wheat from the PNW, which is limiting buying interest.

 

Live and feeder cattle futures remain mixed at midday, although are favoring a firmer tone.

  • June live cattle are slightly higher, but August futures have rallied sharply to narrow the discount the contract holds to the cash market given the overall tightness of supplies.
  • Nearby futures are also finding support from strength in the boxed beef market, with Choice values up $1.80 this morning to return above the $200-per-cwt. level. Select values are up 23 cents on light movement of 89 loads this morning.
  • Uncertainty surrounding this week's cash cattle tone, however, is limiting buying to corrective trade.
  • This week's cattle showlist is up slightly from last week after only light cash trade was reported in the Plains on Friday.

 

Lean hog futures remain narrowly mixed in lackluster trade.

  • August and October lean hog futures are slightly higher, with the rest of the market slightly lower as traders wait to see if Friday's strength in the pork cutout market spills over to this week.
  • Traders are also cautious about adding to long positions due to early indications a technical top may be in place.
  • But pressure on July lean hog futures is being limited by the discount it holds to the cash index.
  • Cash hog bids are steady at most Midwest locations. Packers' profit margins returned to the black after pork cutout values surged on Friday, but they are hesitant to ramp up kill runs after cutting in the red for an extended period.
     
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