Market Snapshot, Noon CT (VIP) -- May 10, 2013

May 10, 2013 07:33 AM
 

Corn futures are posting losses of mostly 9 to 11 cents.

  • After an initial negative reaction to USDA's crop reports, futures have come back to near pre-report levels. Still, bears hold the decided upper hand..
  • USDA projected 2013-14 carryover at 2.004 billion bu. -- higher than the average pre-report guess of 1.973 billion bushels.
  • USDA added 2 million bu. to its 2012-13 carryover estimate of 759 million bu., but the trade expected USDA to trim that figure to 754 million bushels..
  • With USDA projecting the largest corn harvest on record, traders concerns over planting delays have been pushed aside.
  • Outside markets are negative with strong gains in the U.S. dollar providing most of the price pressure on corn.

 

May soybean futures are firmer with the other old-crop contracts around 1 to 2 cents lower, while new crop are down 9 to 12 cents.

  • USDA's call for a record 2013 soybean crop of 3.39 billion bu. and a stronger re-building of stocks than expected sent futures even lower shortly at the report release.
  • Traders boosted their selling on USDA's projection of a rise in the 2013-14 carryover to 265 million bu., higher than the pre-report estimate of 239 million bushels.
  • USDA left its projection of 2012-13 ending stocks at a tight 125 million bu., which is helping limit selling in old-crop futures.
  • The outside markets are also negative to soybeans.

 

Wheat futures are under pressure with Chicago and Kansas City near 20 cents lower and Minneapolis 13 to 15 cents lower.

  • USDA's projection of higher-than-expected 2013-14 ending stocks sent futures lower immediately after the report release
  • Addition additional selling pressure is coming from the 6- to 10-day forecast, which calls for above-normal precip chances for areas of Kansas and Oklahoma.
  • The unfriendly outside markets and spillover from neighboring pits only adds to the negative tone in wheat.

 

Live cattle futures are generally weaker except for the October contract which is steady.

  • Traders continues to worry about future demand even as dressed beef moves to a new high. Choice boxed beef cuts reached $205.55 this morning, up 6 cents from yesterday. Movement was just 121 loads.
  • Kansas cash trade is listed as moderate at $126 -- $2 below last week. Nebraska reported sees light to moderate activity at a dressed price of $202, which is $4 to $5 below last week.
  • News McDonald's will phase out its one-third pound Angus burgers only adds to demand concerns.
  • USDA left its forecast of 2013 beef prices unchanged in today's Supply & Demand update at $126 to $134 for the third quarter and $127 to $137 in the fourth quarter.
  • The plunge in corn futures is prompting modest gains in feeder cattle futures.

 

Lean hog futures remain under pressure at midday.

  • Futures are lower as the trade worries about demand.
  • Pork carcass price reached $90.23, up $1.30 but movement slowed to 217.6 loads.
  • Traders also believe most packers have their Memorial Day demand needs covered and may try to press cash prices lower to trim their negative cutting margin.
  • The normal season decline in hog supplies is helping limit selling pressure.
  • This week, the gap between nearby futures and the cash hog index has narrowed substantially. The June contract is in line with the index.
  • USDA lowered its projection of live hog prices slightly in today's Supply & Demand Report, to $60 to $64 for the third quarter and $52 to $56 for the fourth quarter.
  • The U.S. dollar index is sharply higher which is providing some pressure today.
     
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