Market Snapshot, Noon CT (VIP) -- November 13, 2012

November 13, 2012 05:58 AM
 

 

Corn futures have softened to trade roughly 4 to 6 cents lower.

  • Corn futures softened after a disappointing weekly export inspections tally of 9.463 million bu., which fell short of expectations and was down nearly 6 million bu. from last week.
  • Adding to concerns about demand destruction, a South Korean feed miller passed on a tender for 55,000 MT of corn, citing high corn prices.
  • But selling interest is being limited by news an unknown destination bought 158,496-MT of corn for 2012-13. But the market expects this was likely part of the Japanese demand news last week, which has already been factored into prices.
  • Gulf basis was steady this morning and at midday, after trending steady to higher in recent days. This keeps tight supplies in mind.

Soybean futures have turned solidly lower with futures seeing double-digit losses.

  • Early gains gave way to profit-taking as the bean market has done some serious chart damage this week.
  • Improved weather conditions in Brazil have been a source of pressure, as has USDA's larger production estimate and carryover projection last Friday.
  • Signs export demand is picking up again are needed for the market to put in a low.
  • This morning's Weekly Export Inspections Report signals still-strong demand for U.S. soybeans. Export inspections of 64.605 million bu. the week ended Nov. 8 topped lofty expectations.
  • Gulf basis levels surged 13 cents for February delivery this morning and were steady at midday. This reminds the market that supplies are tight and demand is strong.

Wheat futures have softened to trade double-digit lower in Chicago, around 7 cents lower in Kansas City and 3 to 6 cents lower in Minneapolis.

  • As the corn market softened, selling in the wheat market picked up. Futures are nearing downtrending support drawn off the lows since July.
  • Light pressure comes from news Ukraine's prime minister says the country will not cap its exports this year, contrary to comments by the country's ag minister. Nevertheless, dwindling supplies mean the country will not be a major player in the export market.
  • The U.K.'s wheat exports for September of 224,021 MT are down 12% from year-ago.
  • And today's lackluster export inspections tally of 10.458 million bu. reminded the market that tightening global stocks have yet to translate to increased demand for U.S. wheat.
  • But downside risk is being limited by drought in the U.S. Central and Southern Plains, which is expected to result in further declines in USDA's winter wheat condition rating this afternoon.

Live cattle futures continue to post slight losses in all but the December contract, which is marginally higher. Feeder cattle futures are steady to moderately lower.

  • Heavy showlist estimates compared to last week and packer profit margins deep in the red have most expecting cash cattle trade to take place at prices steady to lower compared to last week's $124 to $126.
  • The fact that packers will be preparing for a holiday shortened week adds to their case.
  • But signs the boxed beef market may have put in a near-term low could give feedlots some bargaining power. This morning, Choice cuts rose 74 cents and Select cuts surged $1.92. Movement was also strong at 99 loads.
  • Also, expectations are that Friday's Cattle on Feed Report will reflect tightening supplies.
  • Softness in the corn market has helped feeder cattle futures trim early losses.
  • Ongoing economic concerns about the U.S. fiscal cliff and fiscal troubles in Europe also limit buying interest.

Lean hog futures have softened to narrowly mixed trade.

  • Lean hog futures' early surge to new contract highs for February and April futures gave way to some light profit taking amid dollar strength.
  • December lean hogs continue to benefit from the slight discount they hold to the cash hog index, however.
  • Wide profit margins for packers has helped demand keep pace with seasonally expanding supplies. Cash hog bids are mostly steady today.
  • But gains are being limited by yesterday's 90-cent decline in the pork cutout value and ideas demand will slow ahead of Thanksgiving. Movement has remained consistently strong, however.
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