Marketing Experts Predict Final Yields

10:54AM Oct 24, 2010
( )

Editor’s note: This is the first part of a Marketing Rally series of articles. Below you will find the answers from half of the Marketing Rally speakers. Stay tuned to hear from the rest of the experts. Learn more about Marketing Rally.

The 2010 Marketing Rally will be help Dec. 1-2 in St. Charles, Ill. Sixteen marketing experts will be featured, as they provide advice and analysis to help you plan for your 2011 marketing season and beyond.
AgWeb asked these experts:

What do you think will be the final 2010 corn yield? What will be the final 2010 soybean yields?

We believe that the final corn yield will be 1-2 bushels (+/-) of the October USDA estimate, while soybean yields will be 1-3 bushels higher
I think the corn yield will be very close to 150 for a national average, and beans could be up a bushel at 45.4.
My estimate for the 2010 corn yield is 145 bu./acre. My bean estimate is 43.8 bu./acre.
To try to guess what the USDA will finalize is quite a process. Given their history...155 bu./acre corn and 44 bu./acre soybeans.
The most recent USDA number is probably on the low side but close to right on. We do not expect much change in corn yield. There may be a small decrease in the USDA’s final number, because historically when the USDA lowers yield in October they lower it again in January. Producers should not stake their marketing decisions on USDA, however, because USDA’s predictions have been as volatile as the market this year.
We look for soybean yields to end slightly higher, based on client reports of well above average beans all over the country.
Corn: 153 – that’s just based on trends seen in years with similar August-Sept.-Oct. USDA yield trends. But, with the trends in place, it’s hard to believe USDA’s NASS will find the evidence to push the national average corn yield up.
Soybeans: 44.9 – that’s Aug. 20 estimate we put out after the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour.
Corn: 152 bu./acre
Beans: 45 bu./acre
Final corn yield: 153.5 bu./acre
Soybeans: 46.8 bu./acre

For More Information
2010 Marketing Rally