Markets Start Week Under Pressure

07:59AM Apr 21, 2014
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Overnight markets as of 6:44 AM CT: Corn -3, wheat -14, soybeans -8, soymeal -1.5.

Overnight trade placed U.S. grain futures lower on improved weather outlook. (Needed rains fell in the wheat plains over the U.S. holiday weekend.) Wheat fell 2%. There was likely follow thru from Commitment of Traders Report that showed speculators reduced size of net long positions of some agriculture commodities.

Rich Posson's model based opinion: Grains were due for a short term top that occurs once or twice per month. Likely placed last week. Time for demand to back off and so no surprise of the overnight turn lower. Still more important trend tops likely occurred in recent weeks for wheat and corn, while soybeans could still exhibit some strength to end of month. Best model script offers a price correction for grains during May.

There was technical discussion on Reuters that MAY soybeans to likely find resistance at $15.30.

China corn imports from U.S. were reported down nearly 95% (as of March month on month).

Egypt agreed to purchase 4.25 million tonnes of wheat from local farmers.

Last week:

Cotton speculators cut net long position by nearly 8,000 futures contracts.

Corn speculators cut net long position by nearly 8,000 futures contracts.

Russian wheat prices were up slightly last week due to continued concerns of U.S. and Russia tensions and the U.S. wheat plains weather problems.