The following content was provided by meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com:
Strong Showers Lift Soybeans in Brazil
The hoped for heavy rainfall in South Brazil occurred last week in Parana, Brazil's second top corn and soybean state. While Rio Grande do Sul received beneficial rains, coverage was scattered, leaving the northwest farms dry. This is Brazil's 3rd top soybean state and 5th leading corn state. The southern farm state needs more rain. A trough of low pressure is developing in southern Brazil that promote unsettled weather and strong showers for a second week.
Mato Grosso soybean growing conditions improved last week, except the center-west where stubborn pockets of dryness persisted. The rainfall history Brazil's top soybean state has been up and down this summer. January growing conditions were good with generous rains in most areas of the state. December was abnormally dry, however.
The forecast this week indicates sub-par rainfall for most of the giant soybean state that produces 31% of the national harvest. Reduced rainfall in late February, if it occurs, would be particularly detrimental for late-planted soybeans still filling pods.
A huge area in the Brazil tropics also would be dry in the new outlook, southern and eastern Mato Grosso, Goias, Bahia and Minas Gerais. While the forecast has swung "wet" in Southern Brazil, it has become very dry in the Brazil tropics.
Argentina Still Needs More Rain
Argentina received beneficial heavy rainfall over most of the grain belt last week. Conditions had been extremely dry and also hot for several weeks. Though recent rains were highly beneficial, much moisture is needed to significantly improve corn and soybean conditions.
Extreme heat dominated the grain belt last week. This has been replaced with moderate temperatures. Monday afternoon highs topped out in the mid 70s F, while nighttime lows have fallen into the mid 50s F. Previously, mid and upper 90s F were common in the Argentina corn and soybean belt.
The new forecast is wet for a second straight week in southern Brazil and Argentina. Rainfall may add up to 3-5 inches in recurring showers in a trough of low pressure this week.
There is one very important footnote, western Buenos Aires, a key corn and soybean area, missed out on heavy rainfall last week. Drought has continued keeping stress on crops.