The following content was provided by meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com:
Drought, Flooding Threaten Brazil Soybean Prospects
Weather damage in top soybean states Mato Grosso and Parana threaten production. AgRural the Brazilian farm consultancy warned in February that soybeans were damaged by severe drought in the South, warning the national crop production may shrink to 88.8 MMT. Hot temperatures worsened moisture stress in pod-filling soybeans. Only 12% of Brazil soybeans had been harvested when the reduced estimate was issued.
The main concern was in Parana the second largest soybean state that grows 16-17 percent of the national crop. The state government subsequently the soybean estimate by 2.1 million metric tons, down 12% from a previous peg, citing severe drought as the cause.
Soybeans in northwestern Rio Grande do Sul were also damaged by drought the southernmost soybean state. However, compared to Parana prospects are significantly better. Soybeans are still filling pods, benefiting from increased rainfall the past 2 weeks.
Recurring strong showers in Mato Grosso is another worry, a threat to both soybean quality and yield. This is the largest soybean state making up 31% of the Brazil harvest. Rainfall was relentless in February, the state's southern soybean farms receiving 150-200% of normal rainfall.
Mato Grosso's Agricultural Economy Institute IMEA anticipates rather minor losses, 1.8% of the state soybeans, in a new estimate early this month. That would still be "a good year" for top soybean producing state IMEA claims.
Argentine conditions improve
Argentina growing conditions have greatly improved with increased rainfall and moderating temperatures. However, serious damage to the corn crop was done from a midsummer drought and heat wave.