The following content was provided by meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com:
Argentina Heavy Rains Continue, Hindering Corn Planting
Argentina received more heavy rainfall last week, further delaying spring corn planting. Rainfall averaged 2-3 inches last week in the grain belt, but more in western Buenos Aires province. The grain belt has received over 6 inches month-to-day and 2-4 times normal.
The 3-day forecast predicts another 1 to 2.3 inches of rain. Temperatures would be cooler than normal this week, slowing evaporation and bogging down planting efforts.
Argentina producers intended to boost corn plantings to a record 4 million hectares, up from 3.6 million last year. However, only one-third of the crop had been seeded by mid-October. Ironically, last year it was drought that stalled corn planting. The 2011-12 corn production shrank to only 21 MMT, a 17% loss on the season. A significant amount of Buenos Aires corn was abandoned, cut for silage because of severe drought damage.
The winter wheat harvest was just getting started in mid October. Local sources said the crop was turning yellow in low-lying areas from flooding. The wheat estimate from USDA is 11.5 MMT, down 4 MMT on the year.
Parana Brazil Still Waiting for Heavy Rain
Waves of showers on the weekend spread northward out of Argentina into Paraguay and Brazil. Rainfall amounts were disappointing, amounting to .55 to 1.50 inch. The GFS model is still wet in Parana calling for 4 to 6 inches of rainfall over the next 3 days.
Parana, Brazil's leading corn state, is very dry as the spring planting season begins. An 8-inch moisture deficit has accrued from a 3-month drought. Rainfall was very disappointing again last week with traces to .20 inch. Average weekly rainfall is 1.6 inches in October.
Persistent hot temperatures in October have added to moisture stress frequently topping 90 F.
Mato Grosso received good rainfall in the key central-west area last week of 2 to 3 inches, spurring soybean planting. Southern Mato Grosso received over 4 inches of welcome rain.