Martell: Improved Rainfall Chances in Northern Brazil

November 5, 2012 03:36 AM
 


The following content was provided by meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com: 

Heavy Rain Coming to Brazil's Top Soybean State

Abundant rainfall is predicted this week in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s leading soybean state that produces nearly 30% of the national harvest. The forecast this week is wet with expectations for 2-5 inches of rainfall in Mato Grosso. Other tropical soybean states are also expecting heavy rainfall Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul and Sao Paulo that would replenish parched fields.

Mato Grosso Wet Forecast

Conditions became very dry in October with a delayed arrival of the monsoon. Moisture deficits accrued to 100-150 millimeters (4-6 inches). A delayed start to the monsoon is not a problem for soybeans since the summer growing season is very wet in the tropics. Winter corn, grown as a second crop after soybeans are harvested, may be negatively impacted. If the monsoon peters out, before corn has finished filling grain, the yield would be reduced. This is real risk if the soybean harvest is delayed. Brazil’s record corn harvest last season 72.73 million metric tons was due in large part to Mato Grosso producing a bumper corn yield.

Argentina Still Too Wet to Plant, Heat is Helpful

In Argentina fields are flooded by excessive rainfall, delaying spring planting of corn and soybeans. October rainfall in Buenos Aires province was 155 millimeters (6.1 inches) and twice the normal. Heavy rain last week, over 50 mm (2 inches), drenched southern Cordoba and Santa Fe, key corn provinces. Temperatures are finally warming up into 80s even low 90s F a couple of days this week. A strong cool front is expected to bring a wave of strong thunderstorms to the grain belt on Friday. Heavy rain is predicted once again, followed by a drop in temperatures of 10-15 degrees.

Buenos Aires Arg Forecast Wet

Argentina producers may be forced to switch corn land into soybeans, if the clock runs out on corn seeding in Buenos Aires.

Blustery Winds, Heavy Rain Returning to Mid-Atlantic States

Hurricane Sandy clean-up efforts continued, albeit at a slow rate. Two million homes were still without electricity in New York and New Jersey on the weekend, local news reports said. More than fifty homes in the borough of Queens were decimated by fire. In New Jersey, a slew of ocean front properties were inundated by the hurricane’s storm surge, a significant number not salvageable.

As clean-up efforts continue, a new storm is predicted in the Mid Atlantic region Wednesday and Thursday. This would not be a tropical storm but rather a "Nor-Easter" an intense mid latitude storm tracking parallel to the mid Atlantic coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts Wednesday morning to Thursday evening. Heavy rain from .75 to 1.5 inch is predicted right along the coast.

Temperatures would remain cold this week in the Eastern United States and 9-12 F below normal, miserable for workers cleaning up after the hurricane and those still out of power.

Harsh Weather in U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat

Drought has worsened in the Great Plains winter wheat zone in recent weeks, the 35-day rainfall map showing acute dryness in Texas, Oklahoma and southern Kansas, the three states that together produce 43% of U.S. winter wheat.

US Rainfall Forecast

High pressure is expected to produce unseasonable warm and dry weather the next five days in the Central and Southern Great Plains. By Saturday, a strong cold front would push east across the Plains. Scattered showers are expected to develop with the frontal passage. Strong gusty winds up to 45 miles per hour are also predicted with the passage of the cold front Saturday. A hard freeze would follow Saturday night on the High Plains.

 


 

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