The following content was provided by meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com:
North America Wheat Prospects Mixed
A very favorable spring wheat outlook in Canada and North Dakota is offset by deteriorating winter wheat prospects in the Western United States. Extremely heavy rainfall in the Canadian prairies contrasts sharply with drought and heat stress in the United States southern Plains bread wheat region.
Canada Prairie Wheat Thriving from Heavy Rains
Canada prairie growing conditions have become extremely wet leading to significant delays in crop development. Saskatchewan the top wheat province reported 42% of spring grains were behind schedule developmentally with 30% surplus field moisture June 24th. In Alberta, river flooding occurred 10 days ago from excessive rainfall in the Calgary area, while province-wide 86% of spring wheat and 83% of canola was rated good-excellent. Wet field conditions were retarding crop development in late June. Manitoba crops were mostly good-excellent, but extreme wetness was causing concerns about foliar disease. Scattered areas were waterlogged from 130-145% of normal rainfall since May 1. Mostly, prairie small grains were reported to be in very good condition.
North Dakota is also is excessively wet reporting 9 inches of rainfall in May-June and 180% of normal. Not all the intended wheat has been planted because of incessant rainfall. However, 75% of state wheat was rated good-excellent and only 3% poor in USDA's June 23 report in the United States. North Dakota is the US second-top wheat state behind Kansas.
Kansas Wheat Suffers in Heat Wave
In Southwest United States, extremely hot temperatures have caused premature ripening in hard red winter wheat that would shrink the yield. Dodge City Kansas has reached or exceeded 100 F on 10 days in June causing kernel shriveling. Slower than normal development, following a cool spring, puts more wheat at risk for a reduced yield. Only 8% of Kansas wheat was harvested by June 23.
Oklahoma and West Texas wheat was already 55% harvested. June heat and moisture stress nevertheless has taken a toll on wheat yields, causing rapid ripening and kernel shriveling. Wheat production estimates in all 3 bread-wheat states are predicted lower in the USDA July report.
Widespread Drought Affects Western Wheat
Hard red winter wheat on the High Plains is not the only area suffering damage from weather stress in June. The Pacific Northwest also has declined sharply from drought and heat stress. Washington wheat went from 81% good-excellent May 5 to 54% good-excellent June 23. Poor-very poor wheat has increased to 13% from 4% previously. This is the US 3rd leading winter wheat state behind Kansas and Oklahoma.
A reduced winter wheat production estimate is anticipated in the July report from USDA. At the same time, spring wheat potential is building in the Canadian prairies, North Dakota and Montana.