The following content was provided by meteorologist Gail Martell of MartellCropProjections.com:
Argentina Showers Brought Variable Results
Argentina crops got a lift from strong showers last week, but damage was incurred by heat and moisture stress previously. Drenching rains in Argentina last week gave corn and soybeans a welcome boost where rainfall was heavy, exceeding 2 inches. Eastern Argentina benefited most from heavy soaking rains. The western farm belt received localized heavy rainfall also. Drought was not entirely quenched in Cordoba and western Buenos Aires.
Irreversible damage to crops was inflicted from previous intense heat and drought stress. Local reports indicated burned leaves and aborted pods in second-crop soybeans. Spider mites and thrips inflicted further damage. Temperatures last week peaked at 38-40 C. Corn was very badly damaged, not even fit to be fed as silage in portions of Buenos Aires. While heavy rain has stemmed the tide of deterioration, yield potential was irreversibly lost.
A massive dry air mass took control of the grain belt over the weekend, producing very low humidity and exceptional cooling. A very dry atmosphere was strongly felt in Buenos Aires, where temperatures fluctuated by 40 degrees F, 40 degrees F, upper 40s F at night and 90 F during the day.
Humid air is building back into the grain belt this week, leading to instability and a chance for scattered showers over much of the farm belt. Rosario, Santa Fe, has a chance for showers on 5 of the next 7 days. At least .75 inch of rainfall, but up to 1.5 inches, is possible in the northern two-thirds of the grain belt.
Buenos Aires would be mostly dry. Very low humidity is expected in the majority of the province stifling chances for rainfall. The dry atmosphere would cause a wide range in daily temperatures, 90 F during the day and near 50 F at night.
South Brazil Trending Drier
Drier weather developed last week in Brazil’s key southern soybean states, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Growing conditions were also hot. This was a setback from the previous 2 weeks, when very generous rainfall occurred. The forecast continues with a dry weather pattern this week.
Parana soybeans last week received some rainfall, though amounts were reduced. Yields were bolstered by very heavy rain the first half of January, reversing, to some degree, drought stress in December. Early harvesting of soybeans was under way in western areas.
Rio Grande do Sul soybeans were badly stunted by December drought, but heavy rain this month improved conditions. Most of the crop was still in vegetative growth period mid January. The key pod filling stage would begin in late January.
Ag Rural the farm consultancy has reduced its estimate of Brazil soybean production to 89-92 million metric tons. This was based heavily on drought damage in Mato Grosso do Sul. Brazil's 4th leading soybean state.
Excessive Rainfall in Top Soybean State
Brazil’s top soybean province Mato Grosso was hit with excessively heavy rain last week, 4-6 inches but locally more. We’ve not heard any reports of damage. On the contrary, Mato Grosso soybean yields were said to be very good in the early harvest, said Alistair Stewart, the DTN consultant in Brazil. "With 15% of the crop harvested, farmers in Sapezal, western Mato Grosso, are registering average yields of 48 bushels per acre. Sorriso in northern Mato Grosso reported soy yields of between 40 and 58 bushels per acre on the 5% harvested, Ag Rural the farm consultancy said.