Mid-year turn around for dairy?

February 10, 2009 06:00 PM
The American Farm Bureau Federation has released a special report on dairy, citing "incredibly difficult circumstances” due to the global recession driving down demand both here and abroad.

Allison Specht, AFBF dairy and regulatory economist, says the main culprit for low prices paid to dairy farmers is the general economic situation.

"The financial condition of consumers has changed domestic food consumption patterns, and dairy is feeling the negative effects of this trend,” Specht says.  "Exports had insulated the dairy industry from feeling losses in away-from-home demand, but this is no longer the case.  While grocery dairy-buying may be expanding slightly, losing any food service demand, which accounts for 40 percent of dairy consumption, is bad news.” 

The National Restaurant Association tracks the industry's heath and performance, and December's index marked the 14th consecutive month that the index was below 100.  An index below 100 signals industry contraction, thus less dairy buyers in the marketplace.

On the export front, higher levels of production from New Zealand this year as that  nation has recovered somewhat from past droughts, coupled with decisions by the European Union to once again directly subsidize exports have also contributed to much stronger competition in trade markets.

"Many analysts believe the dairy market is close to the bottom and should not fall much further,” Specht said. Butter and milk powder prices are at government support levels, and the federal government purchased nearly 162.3 million pounds of nonfat dry milk and almost 2.67 million pounds of butter between Oct. 1, 2008 and Feb. 6, 2009.

Most dairy industry analysts foresee depressed prices through the duration of the recession, however optimists anticipate a mid to late-year turnaround. "The U.S. dairy industry is positioned very well in the long-term (post 2009) assuming a growing world economy, but individual producer survival is dependent on management decisions and how long the short-term economic woes will last,” Specht says.

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