Midweek Markets: Battle of the Bargain Hunters

July 16, 2014 08:09 AM
Midweek Markets: Battle of the Bargain Hunters

 Change is constant – and complex – in today’s commodity future’s markets. Grain market experts scour the globe looking for any insights to gain a competitive edge. Here is sample of what some of them have been saying this week.

Paul Georgy with Allendale, Inc., has his sights set on an ongoing battle between those who are convinced corn yields will top 170 bu. per acre and those who insist it’s still too early to tell. Amidst the chatter, some marketers are searching for deals.

"Bargain hunters are stepping in and buying corn and soybeans," he says. "However, it is believed rallies are made to be sold at least until we find a reason for a significant yield loss."

Grain Hedge wants to know: Are November soybeans ready for a bottom?

"I’m not necessarily saying that I’m bullish, that I want to go long, but most producers out there are long right now," says marketer Cody Bills. "I would be looking at [the current numbers] and saying what are my price targets if we do get a bounce? If we get up right around that $11.33 price area [for Nov. 2014], that’s an area where you would want to be looking to make some sales if we get a bounce up into that spot."

Meantime, Kevin Van Trump with Farm Direction is asking a different question: Is now a good time to lock in fuel prices? He thinks so, given some production difficulties overseas, particularly in Libya. For now, production is ramping up, but the threat of turmoil is far from over there.

"If you need to lock in diesel fuel for the fall this might be a good opportunity," he says. "Start doing your homework and checking local prices."

Don’t look now, but the wheat market looks like it could be running out of sellers, according to Dan Hueber with the Hueber report.

"After closing higher on Monday, prices were able to bounce back into the close in Chicago yesterday and we have strength again overnight," he says. "Granted, this is by no means enough to try and confirm a reversal just yet, but after a 47-day slide of almost $2.20 in December futures, you would have to suspect that a few shorts may be at the point of wanting to pull some money from the table."

Great growing conditions can throw a wrench into this year’s marketing strategy, says Dustin Johnson with the eHedger Report.

"The problem for corn is that we have already entered the critical stages and it will be hard for any meaningful losses to occur during the remainder of the growing season," he says. "Soybeans are still up in the air, but the June 30th acreage report has given the market plenty of cushion to still build a meaningful carryout. The market will be watching the early August forecast very closely for direction."

Market Rally, a podcast featuring Pro Farmer’s Chip Flory, breaks down market highlights each afternoon when the markets close. Market Rally broadcasts to these affiliates, so you can listen live starting at 2:06 CST. Or, catch up anytime online at http://www.agweb.com/multimedia/market_rally/podcast.aspx.

Want more? AgWeb readers are sharing fresh marketing insights every day. Click here to join the conversation, or to start your own.

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