Midweek Markets: Lemons, Broken Records and Other Appropriate Analogies

July 2, 2014 08:09 AM
Midweek Markets: Lemons, Broken Records and Other Appropriate Analogies

 Change is constant – and complex – in today’s commodity future’s markets. Grain market experts scour the globe looking for any insights to gain a competitive edge. Here is sample of what some of them have been saying this week.

Monday’s USDA acreage report drove much of the marketing discussion this week. Dan Hueber with the Hueber Report says it’s hard to "make lemonade from the lemons the corn is dealing at this point."

"The USDA reports this week deflated the last of the supply and domestic usage balloons, and the weather appears to be near ideal as we move into the pollination stage for much of the Midwest," he says.

The report’s biggest surprise may have been for soybeans, says Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge Group. That’s because acreage estimates were well above what many were anticipating.

"This now puts soybean acreage at a new record by a long shot," he says. "Old crop soybeans were not spared from the bearish report either, as stocks came in well above the trade guess as well. This all amounted to a sharp drop in soybeans, with the hardest hit new crop November soybeans down $1.00 in less than 24 hours."

Cattle-feeding margins exploded this past week, says Paul Georgy with Allendale, Inc.

"Week ending June 28, margins hit $280, compared to previous week of $194 and a negative $162 a year ago," he says. "Beef values remain strong as retailers feature steaks for the July 4th Cookout."

Time will tell if post-holiday demand will be able to sustain the recent strength, he adds.

All eyes are also on weather. In the short-term, localized flooding and storm damage is the primary concern. Further out, speculation has been focused on El Niño’s potential impact on different parts of the country. Specifically, the West and Southwest could see drought relief, although the exact affects will be dependent upon the severity of El Niño once it’s here in full force.

The likelihood of a stong El Niño is actually relatively rare, according to USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey. This also makes the system more difficult for meteorologists to predict. Strong events create more clearly defined weather patterns.

"The stronger the El Niño, the more I can look like a soothsayer," Rippey says. "The weaker the event, anything goes."

Market Rally, a podcast featuring Pro Farmer’s Chip Flory, breaks down market highlights each afternoon when the markets close. Market Rally broadcasts to these affiliates, so you can listen live starting at 2:06 CST. Or, catch up anytime online at http://www.agweb.com/multimedia/market_rally/podcast.aspx.

The AgWeb discussion boards continue to be a farmer-led wealth of information. Ask questions, answer questions, offer opinions or just follow along.

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