USDA today projected 2010 U.S. milk production at 192.8 billion pounds, raising its forecast slightly from last month as higher milk per cow more than offsets lower cow numbers.
In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), USDA said the forecast for 2011 milk production is reduced as higher feed prices are expected to slow the rate of growth in cow numbers and milk per cow compared with last month. Today’s WASDE report pegged next year’s U.S. milk production at 196 billion pounds.
Import and export forecasts are unchanged. Fat basis stocks are reduced for 2010 as stocks of butter are forecast to be tight. Skim solids stocks are unchanged.
USDA also said continued strength in demand for cheese and relatively tight supplies of butter support higher forecast prices for 2010 and 2011. Price forecasts for nonfat dry milk (NDM) are raised for 2010 and 2011 as supplies are tighter. The 2010 whey price forecast is increased slightly but is unchanged for 2011.
Both Class III and Class IV price forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are raised due to the higher product prices. The all milk price is forecast to average $16.45/cwt. to $16.55/cwt. for 2010 and $16.00/cwt. to $16.90/cwt. for 2011.