NCC Survey Reflects Expected Sharp Drop in Cotton Plantings

February 11, 2013 12:32 AM
 

According to the National Cotton Council's (NCC) 30th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey, U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 9.01 million acres of cotton this spring, down 26.8% from 2012. Upland cotton intentions are 8.81 million acres, down 27.0% from 2012, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 203,000 acres represent a 15.0% decline.

Assuming slightly above-average abandonment in the Southwest region due to the dry conditions and all other states set at historical averages, total upland and ELS harvested area would be 7.65 million acres, which is 15.2% below planted area. Applying state-level yield assumptions to projected harvested acres generates a cotton crop of 12.86 million bales, compared with 2012's total production of 17.01 million bales.

NCC Vice President Gary Adams said that, "Planted acreage is just one variable determining final production. Weather is often a more significant determinant, particularly weather developments in the southwestern U.S. With this in mind, we could see the U.S. crop ranging from a low of 9.5 million bales to a high of 17.0 million bales."

Adams reminded that the expectations are a snapshot of intentions based on market conditions at the time of the survey. Actual plantings will be influenced by changing market conditions and weather.

Prospective 2013 U.S. Cotton Area

 

 

 2012 Actual

 (Thou.) 1/

 2013 Intended

 (Thou.) 2/

Percent

Change

SOUTHEAST

2,748 

2,241 

-18.5% 

   Alabama

380 

320 

-15.7% 

   Florida

108 

103 

-4.5% 

   Georgia

1,290 

1,093 

-15.3% 

   N. Carolina

585 

398 

-32.0% 

   S. Carolina

299 

265 

-11.4% 

   Virginia

86 

62 

-28.3% 

MID-SOUTH

2,030 

1,003 

-50.6% 

   Arkansas

595 

221 

-62.9% 

   Louisiana

230 

144 

-37.3% 

   Mississippi

475 

199 

-58.1% 

   Missouri

350 

239 

-31.6% 

   Tennessee

380 

199 

-47.6% 

SOUTHWEST

6,911 

5,228 

-24.4% 

   Kansas

56 

50 

-10.4% 

   Oklahoma

305 

267 

-12.3% 

   Texas

6,550 

4,910 

-25.0% 

WEST

388 

341 

-12.2% 

   Arizona

200 

193 

-3.6% 

   California

142 

112 

-21.4% 

   New Mexico

46 

36 

-21.0% 

TOTAL UPLAND

12,077 

8,812 

-27.0% 

TOTAL ELS

238 

203 

-15.0% 

   Arizona

-16.0% 

   California

225 

190 

-15.6% 

   New Mexico

-26.0% 

   Texas

3.9% 

ALL COTTON

12,315 

9,015 

-26.8% 

1/ USDA-NASS

2/ National Cotton Council

 

 


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