Neutral, Bearish WASDE Report

March 10, 2011 03:26 AM

The numbers are in for the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Projections for corn, sorghum, and oats supplies, usage, and ending stocks are all unchanged. U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected higher this month on reduced export prospects. See all the report data.

Jerry Gulke, president of Gulke Group, says the government did not change much from the previous month.
“The most significant thing is that USDA saw no solid evidence of any significant demand that would suggest was have solved the problem of pricing things high enough to curb demand,” he says.
Gulke says volatility will continue in the grain markets. But, nothing in the report is making him say this is 2008 all over again.
Bob Utterback, president of Utterback marketing says short-term highs are probably in until weather starts playing a bigger role. But, he says, we’re still 30 or 45 days away from planting.
“The bulls have lost control in the short-term.”
For a high note for the U.S., Gulke says to look at the decrease in soybean oil carryout. He says the increased domestic consumption of soybean oil, which is used mostly for cooking, which means more people are eating out.
“Our economy is turning around,” he says. “The government is actually seeing some domestic demand coming back.”

For Further Analysis:

Listen to Gulke's comments on AgWeb Radio.

Listen to Utterback's comments on AgWeb Radio.

Listen to Mike Howlett's comments on AgWeb Radio.

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