New Farm Bill Predictions

October 27, 2011 02:39 AM
 
Untitled Document

via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

The likely end zone for important farm bill issues


NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.


The following are my new farm bill predictions based on sources close to the topics discussed:

  • If Super Committee comes up with at least $1.2 trillion in debt reduction over ten years, farm bill will be part of the package

  • Likely move to making farm program payments on planted and not base acres

  • Move to revenue assurance programs subsidized by gov't, in return for eliminating direct payments, counter-cyclical payments, ACRE and SURE

  • Problem getting programs to fit with rice and peanuts | May take several years for viable crop insurance program for rice – those producers may be given program option | Peanuts have bigger problem with crop insurance than rice

  • Gross margin, supply-management dairy program likely part of farm bill

  • More agriculture budget cuts in future years beyond farm bill-related cuts if US economy remains tepid

  • Conservation Reserve Program maximum acres now at 32 million will be lowered to 25-28 million ac.

  • Nutrition program cuts will be made but mostly administrative cost savings | SNAP benefits won't be cut

  • Payment cap issues will be dealt with after farm program details are agreed on

  • Lack of open farm bill process could lead to unintended consequences

  • Goal of equitable farm bill for regions and commodities may not be met



NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.


 


 

 

 

 

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