No Seasonal Top Yet, But Now's an Opportunity to Act

February 23, 2017 12:15 PM

Since Thanksgiving, commodity markets have experienced rallies that have boosted moods across farm country. One of the main questions on many farmers’ minds is how much longer will it last.

“Last year, it seemed like we were trying to create a marketing plan to breakeven on corn and ultimately defend some losses on soybeans,” said Jarod Creed of Gavilon to U.S. Farm Report host Tyne Morgan at the National Farm Machinery Show (NFMS). “Fast forward to this year, it’s a completely different situation. Prices in relationship to all of this has given the opportunity to make a decision to decide on how much money do we want to make rather than how much money am I going to potentially lose.”

Soybeans are continuing to have tremendous demand. China continues to import half of the world crop between the U.S. and South America, according to Chip Nellinger of Blue Reef Trading.

“Corn and wheat on the other hand, I think that’s more of a value thing,” said Nellinger. “There’s a lot more money out there. I think some of this doesn’t have to do with the fundamentals of supply and demand—it’s just money trying to buy something that’s cheap.”

“The stocks-to-use ratios on corn at about 16 percent and where the dollar is, the dollar match up from 1997 to 2000,” said Bill Biedermann of Allendale, Inc. “The soybean stocks [also] match up real well. And then back into 1984 through ’87.”

Is it possible to get close to 90 million acres in soybeans? Watch the full roundtable discussion with Biedermann, Creed and Nellinger on U.S. Farm Report above.

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