Corn can afford to lose two to three million acres this year, Jerry Gulke of Strategic Marketing Services told the attendees at the Top Producer Seminar. "Even with an increase in all categories of usage over USDA's numbers, we'll still have adequate ending stocks," which he pegs at 1.8 billion bushels. In fact, he pointed out that Informa expects an even more ample 2-billion carryover. This year's average yield could exceed last year's if we plant fewer acres, Gulke added, because lower-performing land is what won't be planted.
We could see a three to four million acre increase in soybeans, leading to carryout of 542 million bushels from the 2009 crop, Gulke added. "Informa projects a 900-million carryout. This means we have $2 to $3/bu. downside risk."
He recommends buying put options for protection, while allowing you to capture any brief rallies. "My technical indicators have gone long for the first time since July, and although I don't see a fundamental reason for it, I won't ignore it either," he told the meeting.