NOAA: 50% Odds of El Nino Developing by Summer or Fall

March 6, 2014 02:51 AM



The National Oceanic Administration Administration (NOAA) says ENSO-neutral conditions continued during February, but adds there is about a 50% chance of El Nino developing during the summer or fall.

NOAA says ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue during spring, but with all models predicting warming in the tropical Pacific, there is "considerable uncertainty" as to whether El Nino will develop during the summer or fall. "If westerly winds continue to emerge in the western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Nino would become more likely. However, the lower forecast skill during the spring and overall propensity for cooler conditions over the last decade still justify significant probabilities for ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall," it states.

It's been documented that odds of trendline or above yields are more likely when El Nino is present. As a result, the timing of an El Nino event will be key.


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