The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says El Nino is likely to develop during August or September, after ENSO-neutral conditions continued in July.
"Nearly all of the dynamical models favor the onset of El Nino beginning in July - September," says NOAA. "As in previous months, several statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions through the remainder of the year, but the average statistical forecast of Niño-3.4 increased compared to last month. Supported by model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, there is increased confidence for a weak-to-moderate El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2012-13. El Nino conditions are likely to develop during August or September 2012."
Juli says: Even if El Nino arrives yet this month, it's too late for saving rains for the corn crop, but late-reason rains could help promote pod development in the soybean crop.