NOAA: El Nino Likely to Develop by September

August 9, 2012 10:53 AM


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says El Nino is likely to develop during August or September, after ENSO-neutral conditions continued in July.

"Nearly all of the dynamical models favor the onset of El Nino beginning in July - September," says NOAA. "As in previous months, several statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions through the remainder of the year, but the average statistical forecast of Niño-3.4 increased compared to last month. Supported by model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, there is increased confidence for a weak-to-moderate El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2012-13. El Nino conditions are likely to develop during August or September 2012."

Juli says: Even if El Nino arrives yet this month, it's too late for saving rains for the corn crop, but late-reason rains could help promote pod development in the soybean crop.

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