The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says to expect ENSO-neutral conditions through the winter. During October, borderline ENSO-neutral to weak El Nino conditions were observed.
NOAA says while the tropical ocean and atmosphere may resemble a weak El Nino at times, it is now considered less likely that a fully coupled El Nino will develop. "Therefore, the previous El Nino watch has been discontinued as the chance of El Nino has decreased. While the development of El Nino, or even La Nina, cannot be ruled out during the next few months, ENSO-neutral is now favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13," it states.
Juli says: This isn't surprising, as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology also recently said ENSO-neutral conditions will linger through the winter. But the mention of "even La Nina" conditions can't be ruled out is a concern as that would signal a lingering drought for the Plains and Midwest.