NOAA: La Nina Likely to Transition to Neutral This Spring

February 10, 2012 12:29 AM

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says La Nina is likely to transition to ENSO-neutral in the March-May timeframe. Calling La Nina, "mature," NOAA says a majority of models predict La Nina to weaken through the remainder of winter and dissipate during spring.

"Because the strength of impacts in the United States is not necessarily related to the exact strength of La Nina in the tropical Pacific, we expect La Nina impacts to continue even as the episode weakens," says NOAA. "Over the U.S. during February - April 2012, there is an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the south-central and southeastern U.S., and below-average temperatures in the northwestern U.S. Also, above-average precipitation is favored across most of the northern tier of states (except the north-central U.S.) And in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and drier-than-average conditions are more likely across the southern tier of the U.S."

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