NOAA Sees ENSO-Neutral Conditions Lasting Through the Summer

May 9, 2013 05:10 AM

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says it expects ENSO-neutral conditions to last through the summer. It says most models project ENSO-neutral conditions into the winter, but some dynamic models project warmer conditions.

NOAA adds, "There is still low confidence in the forecasts for the latter half of the year, partly because of the so-called "spring barrier," which historically leads to lower model skill for forecasts made between March and May. Forecast confidence will increase over the next few months. The current forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral will likely continue into the second half of the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013."

This climate prediction signals neither La Nina (associated with increased drought risk) or El Nino (associated with weather that builds above-trend yields) will be influencing the Midwest during the coming growing season.


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