The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for November through January calls for above-normal temps across the Midwest, Central Plains and Southern Plains, but provides little precip guidance. The agency says chances are equal for normal, below- or above-normal precip through January across the Northern Plains, Central Plains and Midwest, while below-normal precip is expected across the Oklahoma Panhandle and Texas.
CPC Outlooks for November:
CPC Outlooks for November-January:
As a result of recent weather and the extended forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggests drought improvement will be scattered. "Additional short-term drought improvement is possible for eastern and central Texas as a slow moving front brings additional widespread rainfall, although an anticipated seasonal tilt towards abnormal dryness supports drought persistence over the remainder of the Southern Plains," it states. "Drought development is possible across much of the Southwest, while seasonable winter wetness may bring some relief to coastal California and the northern Rockies. Late fall and winter is climatologically dry across the Plains and Midwest, making significant improvements of lingering drought less likely."
The Seasonal Drought Outlook signals much of Iowa and central Illinois will remain in a state of drought through the winter, making spring-time moisture critical for recharging soil moisture. Meanwhile, timely rains have provided needed moisture for establishment of the winter wheat crop in the Central and Southern Plains, but the outlook for drought to linger across the key growing area raises the risk of stress to the crop next spring.