The National Weather Service (NWS) says in making its outlook for December, it recognized the general warm ENSO signal, but says there is little indication for a robust ENSO response. It says inconsistent signals in the equatorial Pacific make an ENSO-like footprint over North America "suspect." It also says weather models the first half of December differ from the second half of the month. As a result, NWS believes there is a 60% chance of a weak El Nino forming this winter.
In its outlook for December, NWS says there is evidence to believe below-normal temps will be seen across the Central and Southern Plains, with above-normal temps along the West Coast and in the Northeast. It expects above-normal precip across the South, including California that is badly in need of drought relief.