NWS: ENSO-neutral Conditions Expected into Spring

October 10, 2013 04:43 AM



The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says ENSO-neutral conditions continued during September as sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were near average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Additionally, it says the majority of its models indicate neutral conditions will continue into spring. The CPC, however, says a few models (mainly statistical) call for a borderline or weak La Nina into winter while a few others (mainly dynamic) forecast a warming toward a borderline or weak El Nino event.

CPC/IRI Early-Month Consensus ENSO Forecast Probabilities
Season La Nina Neutral El Nino
SON 2013 8% 88% 4%
OND 2013 10% 81% 9%
NDJ 2014 10% 76% 14%
DJF 2014 10% 72% 18%
JFM 2014 11% 69% 21%
FMA 2014 11% 65% 24%
MAM 2014 11% 62% 27%
AMJ 2014 12% 62% 26%
MJJ 2014 12% 58% 30%


"Though the forecast favors near-average conditions, many models predict a gradual increase from slightly cooler-than-average to warmer conditions as the spring approaches. Overall, the consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014," states CPC on its ENSO forecast.



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