Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.93 billion bushels, up slightly from September and up 17 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 47.1 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushel from last month and up 3.1 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record 83.4 million acres, down less than 1 percent from September but up 9 percent from last year. Acreage updates were made in several States based on a thorough review of all available data.
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Planted area, at 84.1 million acres, is down less than 1 percent from the previous estimate. Area for harvest is forecast at a record 83.4 million acres, down less than 1 percent from September but up 9 percent from 2013. The October objective yield data for the combined 11 major soybean-producing States (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota) indicate a higher pod count compared with last year as conditions have generally been more favorable across the Midwest. Compared with final counts for 2013, pod counts are up in seven of the eleven published States. The largest increase from 2013's final pod count is expected in Missouri, up 469 pods per 18 square feet. An increase of more than 200 pods per 18 square feet is expected in Arkansas and Illinois.
As of September 28, sixty-nine percent of the soybean crop was dropping leaves or beyond, 5 percentage points ahead of last year but 2 percentage points behind the 5-year average. At that time, progress was behind normal in 12 of the 18 major States, with Kentucky and Minnesota more than 10 percentage points behind normal. Harvest progress, at 10 percent complete, was equal to last year's pace but 7 percentage points behind normal. Harvest progress was more than 10 percentage points behind normal in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.
As of September 28, seventy-two percent of the United States soybean crop was rated in good to excellent condition, 19 percentage points better than the same week in 2013.
If realized, the forecasted yield will be a record high in Arkansas, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, and Tennessee.