Oct. 10 WASDE: Rice Production Raised on Higher Yield Forecast

16:12PM Oct 10, 2014
USDA-rice

RICE:  U.S. all rice production in 2014/15 is forecast at 220.7 million cwt, up 2.4 million from last month with the increase entirely due to higher yield.  The average all rice yield is forecast at 7,584 pounds per acre, up 83 pounds from last month.  Yields are raised in Arkansas, Missouri, and Texas.  All rice harvested area is unchanged at 2.91 million acres.  Both long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice production are raised from last month, with long-grain production projected at 160.0 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production at 60.7 million.  The all rice import forecast is unchanged at 21.0 million cwt.  Total use is projected at 233.0 million cwt, unchanged from last month with domestic and residual use at 131.0 million and exports at 102.0 million.  All rice ending stocks are projected at 40.5 million cwt, up 2.4 million from last month, and the largest stocks since 2011/12.

The 2014/15 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $12.20 to $13.20 per cwt, down 30 cents per cwt on each end of the range.  The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $17.70 to $18.70 per cwt, up 45 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $13.80 to $14.80 per cwt, down 10 cents per cwt on each end of the range.

Global rice 2014/15 ending stocks are reduced as the decline in total supplies exceed the fall in total use.  The drop in global 2014/15 rice production resulted in a decline in total supplies, despite an increase in beginning stocks.  Beginning stocks are increased 0.5 million tons due mostly to increases in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and a number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.  World 2014/15 rice production is projected at 475.5 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month, and a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last year’s record crop.  The fall in production is due mostly to a 1.0-million-ton decrease in India’s crop to 102.0 million tons, due to a decline in average yield.  Below normal seasonal rains during the 2014 monsoon season in some regions of India were unfavorable for rice production.  Rice crops are also reduced in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and several Sub-Saharan African countries.  Global consumption is reduced slightly, but is still a record at 481.7 million tons, up 5.6 million tons from 2013/14.  Global trade for 2014/15 is nearly unchanged from a month ago.  Global 2014/15 ending stocks are projected at 104.2 million tons, down 0.9 million from last month, and 6.2 million below 2013/14.  The decline in world ending stocks is due mostly to a decrease in India of 1.0 million tons.  Forecast ending stocks are also lowered for Pakistan and Sri Lanka, partially offset by increases for Brazil, the Philippines, and the United States.