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Oct. 10 WASDE: Total Meat Production Raised

16:22PM Oct 10, 2014
USDA feedyard

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The forecasts for total meat production in 2014 and 2015 are raised from last month.  For both 2014 and 2015, the increase in beef production is driven by heavier carcass weights as lower corn prices encourage producers to market heavier cattle.  Pork production in 2014 is reduced from last month as slower gains in carcass weights in the second half of the year more than offset higher expected fourth-quarter slaughter.  For 2015, the production forecast is raised.  USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated that the decline in third-quarter pigs per litter was less than during the first half of the year.  With higher indicated farrowing intentions for the last quarter of 2014 and into 2015, and slightly more rapid forecast recovery in pigs per liter, it is expected that a greater number of hogs will be available for slaughter during 2015.  Increased pork production will also be supported by higher carcass weights.  Broiler productions for 2014 is unchanged, but lower forecast feed costs are expected to encourage more rapid production growth in 2015.  Turkey production for 2014 is slightly higher based on production data to date; however, the production forecast for 2015 is unchanged.  Egg production is raised for both 2014 and 2015, reflecting revisions to table egg production estimates. 

Forecasts for 2014 and 2015 beef imports are unchanged from last month.  Beef exports for 2014 are lowered based on recent trade data, but the forecast for 2015 is unchanged.  Pork imports are unchanged for 2014, but are reduced for 2015 as U.S. production is forecast higher and prices lower.  Pork exports are forecast higher on strong demand in 2014 and more competitive prices in 2015.  Broiler exports are raised for 2014 on current strength of demand, but the 2015 forecast is unchanged.  Turkey export forecasts are raised for 2014 and 2015. 

The cattle price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged from last month.  The hog price forecast for 2014 is unchanged, but the 2015 price is lowered on larger supplies.  The broiler price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are raised on robust demand.  The turkey price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged.  The egg price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged. 

The milk production forecast for 2014 is reduced from last month on slower growth in milk per cow.  However, for 2015, the production forecast is raised as growth in output per cow is expected higher with relatively lower-priced feed.  Export forecasts for 2014 are lowered as U.S. dairy prices are less competitive, but import forecasts are raised as relatively high U.S. prices encourage larger imports. The trade forecasts for 2015 are unchanged.

Butter, cheese, and whey prices for 2014 are raised from last month as domestic demand continues to support prices.  Prices of these products are unchanged for 2015.  However, the nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts for both 2014 and 2015 are reduced as U.S. prices are expected to decline to increase the competitiveness of NDM exports.  The Class III price for 2014 is raised on stronger cheese and whey prices, but is unchanged for 2015.  The Class IV price is raised for 2014 as higher butter prices more than offset the decline in NDM prices, but for 2015, the lower forecast NDM price results in a lower Class IV price.  The all milk price is raised to $24.10 to $24.20 per cwt for 2014, and is lowered for 2015 to $18.95 to $19.85 per cwt.