WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 44 million bushels as increased production is more than offset by higher feed and residual disappearance and higher exports. Production for 2014/15 is raised 5 million bushels based on the latest estimate from the September 30 Small Grains 2014 Summary. Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat and Hard Red Winter wheat are raised 32 million bushels and 9 million bushels, respectively. Reductions in the other three classes are partially offsetting. Projected feed and residual use is raised 25 million bushels reflecting the September 1 stocks that indicated higher-than-expected June-August disappearance. Projected exports are raised 25 million bushels on higher-than-expected sales for HRS and Soft Red Winter wheat. The projected range for the 2014/15 season-average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on both the high and low end to $5.55 to $6.25 per bushel.
Global 2014/15 wheat supplies are raised 0.3 million tons with increased production offsetting lower beginning stocks. World production is raised 1.2 million tons led by a 3.0-million-ton increase for EU and 0.5-million-ton increases for both Pakistan and Ukraine. Decreases are led by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Kazakhstan, a 0.8-million-ton reduction for Algeria, 0.5-million-ton reductions for both Australia and Canada, and a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Argentina. Changes for Northern Hemisphere countries reflect updated harvest reports and government statistics. For the Southern Hemisphere, Australia is lowered on continued dryness in portions of the southeast and Argentina is lowered on wet conditions that have limited planting.
Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is raised 4.1 million tons to a record 714.1 million reflecting both higher food and feed use. Global wheat trade is raised with exports up 1.2 million tons to 156.0 million. The largest increase is 2.0 million tons for EU due to the larger crop. Mexico exports are raised 0.5 million tons on large durum supplies and strong international demand. Offsetting decreases are made for Kazakhstan (down 1.0 million tons), Australia (down 0.5 million tons), and Argentina (down 0.3 million tons) on smaller crops. Projected consumption rises faster than supplies lowering global ending stocks 3.8 million tons to 192.6 million.
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