Perspective on USDA Secretary's Tom Vilsack's Comments About This Year's Corn Crop

August 24, 2012 02:09 AM
 

via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

How the 'eighth largest' US corn crop sizes up to the seventh and ninth largest

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.


USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack is a Cabinet cheerleader for ethanol and has previously stated no changes in the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) are needed. But, with each projection/estimate of this year's US corn crop, Vilsack keeps changing how the production level stacks up to prior years. However, even now, Vilsack remains the ethanol cheerleader and continues to signal no changes are needed in the RFS mandate.

In an Aug. 23 phone interview with the Capital Press, Vilsack said, First and foremost, the federal government needs to "have a good understanding of precisely what our yields are going to be this year. We don't know. We have estimates. And if the estimates are correct, it would be the eighth largest corn crop in the country's history."

So, Vilsack says the US corn crop is currently the eighth largest.
That would make the 2006 corn crop the ninth largest and the 2005 crop the seventh largest.

The following is a comparison of the supply/demand situation for the three marketing years. Note the differences in acreage and ethanol production for the years, as well as the price differences. Also, note the percentage of the crop used for ethanol – in 2005/06 it was 14.4 percent; in 2006/07 it was 20 percent; in 2012/13 it is estimated at 41.7 percent. And, compare the feed and residual use estimates for the years and you will see that the animal sector is the primary price-rationing element this year. Vilsack does not include those dramatic changes in his utterances on the topic. 

Item

2005/06

2006/07

2012/13

Area planted (mil. ac.)

81.8

78.3

96.4

Area harvested (mil. ac.)

75.1

70.6

87.4

Yield (bu/ac)

148.0

149.1

123.4

Beginning stocks (bil. bu.)

2.114

1.967

1.021

Production

11.114

10.535

10.779

Imports

0.009

0.012

0.075

Total Supply

13.237

12.514

11.875

Feed and Residual

6.141

5.598

4.075

Food, Seed & Industrial

2.981

3.488

5.850

Ethanol for Fuel (05/06 & 06/07)
Ethanol  & By-Products (12/13)

1.603

2.117

4.500

Total Domestic

9.122

9.086

9.925

Exports

2.147

2.125

1.300

Use, Total

11.270

11.210

11.225

Ending Stocks

1.967

1.304

0.650

Avg. farm price ($/bu)

$2.00

$3.04

$7.50-$8.50

 


 

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.


 


 

 

 

 

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