PF Reaction: Soybeans Surge Following USDA Report

November 8, 2013 05:54 AM
 

 

 

MARKET REACTION

Ahead of today's Crop Production and Supply & Demand Reports, December corn futures were trading about 4 cents lower, January beans about 6 cents higher, December soft red winter wheat about 4 cents lower and December cotton was up about 70 points.

After an immediate surge in prices following the release of today's reports, December corn is now 3 1/2 cents higher, January beans are up 22 cents, December soft red winter wheat futures are down 1 cent and December cotton futures are up 34 points.

 

CROP PRODUCTION

CORN: 13.989 billion bu.; trade expected 14.022 billion bu.
-- compares to Sept. est. of 13.843 billion bu.; 10.780 billion bu. in 2012
BEANS: 3.258 billion bu.; trade expected 3.225 billion bu.
-- compares to Sept. est. of 3.149 billion bu.; 3.015 billion bu. in 2012
COTTON: 13.11 million bales; trade expected 13.3 million bales
-- compares to Sept. est. of 12.9 million bales; 17.315 million bales in 2012

USDA puts the national average corn yield at 160.4 bu. per acre, up from the September estimate of 155.3 bu. per acre. USDA also now puts harvested corn acres at 87.232 million, down 1.903 million acres from the September estimate.

Record corn yields are expected in the eastern Corn Belt with Ohio at 174 bu. per acre (up 2 bu. from September), Indiana at 174 bu. (up 8 bu.) and Illinois at 180 bu. per acre (up 15 bu. from September yield estimate). Iowa's corn yield is now put at 169 bu. per acre (up 7 bu. from September), Missouri 133 bu. (up 8 bu.), Nebraska 169 bu. (up 5 bu.), Kansas 130 bu. (up 5 bu.) and Wisconsin is at 145 bu. per acre (up 2 bu. from September). Yield declines from September are recorded in Minnesota at 164 bu. per acre (down 2 bu.), Michigan 156 bu. (down 2 bu.) and North Dakota at 107 bu. (down 4 bu. from September). The South Dakota corn yield is steady with the September peg at 145 bu. per acre.

USDA cut average ear population per acre from September to 28,300 per acre, which is still a record ear population for the country. The average ear weight was increased sharply from September and now stands above levels seen in 2010. The average ear weight is about 0.325 lbs. per ear.

USDA now puts the national average soybean yield at 43.0 bu. per acre, up from the September estimate of 41.2 bu. per acre. USDA also now puts harvested soybean acres at 75.688 million acres, down 690,000 acres from the September estimate.

Ohio is expected to have a record soybean yield this year at 49 bu. per acre, which is unchanged from the September estimate. Also unchanged from September are yields in Minnesota at 39 bu. per acre, Wisconsin at 40 bu. and Missouri at 35 bu. per acre. Yield increases from September are estimated in Indiana at 50 bu. (up 2 bu.), Illinois at 49 bu. (up 3 bu.), Iowa at 45 bu. (up 2 bu.), Nebraska at 52 bu. (up 5 bu.), South Dakota at 40 bu. (up 5 bu.) and North Dakota at 30 bu. (up 1 bu. from September).

USDA cut the number of pods in 18 sq. feet from September, but increased the average pod weight to a record of about 0.305 grams per pod.

The national average cotton yield is put at 808 lbs. per acre, up 12 lbs. from the September estimate. USDA made no change to harvested acres.

 

2013-14 U.S. CARRYOVER

CORN: 1.887 billion bu.; up from Sept. proj. of 1.855 billion bu.
-- compares to 824 million bu. in 2012-13
BEANS: 170 million bu.; up from Sept. proj. of 150 million bu.
-- compares to 141 million bu. in 2012-13
WHEAT: 565 million bu.; up slightly from Sept. proj. of 561 million bu.
-- compares to 718 million bu. in 2012-13
COTTON: 3.0 million bales; up from Sept. proj. of 2.9 million bales
-- compares to 3.9 million bales in 2012-13

Old-crop corn carryover was put at 824 million bu., lining up with the Sept. 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate. New-crop corn carryover of 1.887 billion bu. is well below the average pre-report trade estimate of 2.056 billion bu., but up 22 million bu. from the September estimate. For 2013-14, USDA's total supply estimate is up 307 million bu. from September, due to the bigger beginning stocks and the 146-million-bu. increase in the crop estimate. Partially offsetting the increase in supply is a 275-million-bu. increase in estimated total use. USDA increased estimated feed & residual use 100 million bu. (to 5.2 billion bu.) and estimated exports 175 million bu. (to 1.4 billion bushels). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price at $4.10 to $4.90, down 30 cents on each end of the range from September.

Old-crop soybean carryover was put at 141 million bu., lining up with the Sept. 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks estimate. New-crop soybean carryover of 170 million bu. is up 20 million bu. from September, but is 13 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. For 2013-14, USDA's total supply estimate is up 124 million bu. from September, due to bigger beginning stocks and the 109-million-bu. increase in the crop. Partially offsetting the increase in supply is a 103-million-bu. increase in total use. USDA increased estimated crush 30 million bu. (1.685 billion bu.) and increased exports 80 million bu. (to 1.45 billion bushels). Projected residual "use" was cut 6 million bu. (to 22 million bushels). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price at $11.15 to $13.15, down 35 cents on each end of the range from September.

Wheat carryover is up 4 million bu. from September and is 38 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased total supply 26 million bu. from September with a bigger crop and increased imports adding to the tally. That was partially offset by a 22-million-bu. increase in total use. USDA increased feed & residual use by 30 million bu. (to 310 million bu.) and cut estimated food use 8 million bu. (to 950 million bushels). USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $6.70 to $7.30, up 20 cents on the bottom end and down 20 cents on the top end of the range from September.

Cotton carryover is up 100,000 bales from September, the result of a 210,000-bale increase in the crop estimate. That increase in supply was partially offset by a 100,000-bale increase in domestic use and a 10,000-bale increase in unaccounted use. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price at 69 cents to 79 cents, steady on the bottom end of the range and down 6 cents on the top end of the range from September.

2013-14 GLOBAL CARRYOVER

CORN: 164.33 MMT; up from Sept. proj. of 151.42 MMT
-- 134.86 MMT for 2012-13
BEANS: 70.23 MMT; down from Sept. proj. of 71.54 MMT
-- 60.11 MMT for 2012-13
WHEAT: 178.48 MMT; up from Sept. proj. of 176.28 MMT
-- 175.59 MMT for 2012-13
COTTON: 95.71 mil. bales; up from Sept. proj. of 94.73 mil. bales
-- 88.06 MMT for 2012-13

 

2013-14 GLOBAL PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS

ARGENTINA BEANS: 53.5 MMT; compares to 53.5 MMT in September
-- 49.3 MMT for 2012-13
BRAZIL BEANS: 88.0 MMT; compares to 88.0 MMT in September
-- 82.0 MMT for 2012-13
ARGENTINA WHEAT: 11.0 MMT; compares to 12.0 MMT in September
-- 9.5 MMT for 2012-13
AUSTRALIA WHEAT: 25.5 MMT; compares to 25.5 MMT in September
-- 22.08 MMT for 2012-13
CHINA WHEAT: 121.0 MMT; compares to 121.0 MMT in September
-- 121.0 MMT for 2012-13
CANADA WHEAT: 33.2 MMT; compares to 31.5 MMT in September
-- 27.21 MMT for 2012-13
EU WHEAT: 143.34 MMT; compares to 142.9 MMT in September
-- 133.58 MMT for 2012-13
RUSSIA WHEAT: 51.5 MMT; compares to 54.0 MMT in September
-- 37.72 MMT for 2012-13
FSU-12 WHEAT: 104.06 MMT; compares to 107.96 MMT in September
-- 77.21 MMT for 2012-13
CHINA CORN: 211.0 MMT; compares to 211.0 MMT in September
-- 205.6 MMT for 2012-13
ARGENTINA CORN: 26.0 MMT; compares to 26.0 MMT in September
-- 26.5 MMT for 2012-13
SOUTH AFRICA CORN: 13.0 MMT; compares to 13.0 MMT in September
-- 12.2 MMT for 2012-13
BRAZIL CORN: 70.0 MMT; compares to 72.0 MMT in September
-- 81.0 MMT for 2012-13
CHINA COTTON: 32.5 mil. bales; compares to 33.0 mil. bales in September
-- 35.0 MMT for 2012-13

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