PF Reaction to June Acreage & Grain Stocks Reports

June 28, 2013 06:36 AM


Leading up to USDA's reports, July corn futures were down a nickel and December corn was down a dime. July beans were trading slightly higher and new-crop futures were slightly lower. Wheat futures in Chicago were 4 to 8 cents lower.

Following the reports, July corn is down 4 cents and December corn is down 24 cents. July soybeans are up 11 cents and November beans are down a dime. July Chicago wheat futures are down 9 cents and December wheat futures are down 12 1/2 cents.


CORN: 97.379 mil. acres; trade expected 95.340 mil. acres
-- compares to 97.282 mil. ac. in March; 97.155 mil. ac. in 2012
SOYBEANS: 77.728 mil. acres; traders expected 78.024 mil. acres
-- compares to 77.126 mil. ac. in March; 77.198 mil. ac. in 2012
ALL WHEAT: 56.530 mil. acres; traders expected 55.751 mil. acres
-- compares to 56.440 mil. ac. in March; 55.736 mil. ac. in 2012
SPRING WHEAT: 12.295 mil. acres; traders expected 12.117 mil. acres
-- compares to 12.701 mil. ac. in March; 12.289 mil. ac. in 2012
DURUM WHEAT: 1.538 mil. acres; traders expected 1.657mil. acres
-- compares to 1.751 mil. ac. in March; 2.123 mil. ac. in 2012
COTTON: 10.251 mil. acres; traders expected 10.29 mil. acres
-- compares to 10.026 mil. ac. in March; 12.315 mil. ac. in 2012

Total planted area to all principal crops is estimated at 325.6 million, down 0.7% from year-ago. There are some major changes in the all principal crop plantings. In North Dakota, all crop plantings are estimated down 2.272 million acres from March intentions; Minnesota total acres are down 262,000; Iowa acres are down just 84,000 from March intentions. Acreage increases are estimated in South Dakota, Nebraska, Missouri, Wisconsin, Indiana and Ohio. Total crop acres in Illinois are nearly unchanged from March (up just 8,000).

Compared to the March Prospective Plantings Report, USDA estimates a 97,000-acre increase in all corn plantings. States with an increase in planted corn acres are Michigan (up 200,000 to 2.8 million); Nebraska (up 300,000, to 10.2 million); Texas (up 300,000, to 2.4 million); and Missouri (up 50,000, to 3.45 million acres). Acreage cuts from March intentions are estimated in Minnesota (down 300,000, to 8.7 million); Iowa (down 200,000, to 14.0 million); Wisconsin (down 150,000, to 4.2 million); and Kansas (down 100,000, to 4.5 million). States with corn plantings steady with March intentions include Illinois (12.2 million), Ohio (3.95), Indiana (6.1), and South Dakota (5.9 million acres).

Looking at soybean planted acreage estimates compared to March intentions, USDA estimates total bean acres up 602,000 acres, with planting increases in Arkansas (up 150,000, to 3.4 million); Indiana (up 150,000, to 5.25 million); Iowa (up 100,000, to 9.5 million); Kansas (up 50,000, to 3.95 million); Missouri (up 400,000, to 5.7 million acres); Nebraska (up 100,000, to 4.8 million); and South Dakota (up 200,000, to 4.8 million acres). Acreage cuts from March intentions are estimated in North Dakota (down 500,000, to 4.4 million) and Ohio (down 100,000, to 4.55 million acres). Soybean planting estimates were held steady with March intentions in Illinois (9.4 million acres) and Minnesota (6.8 million acres).

Spring wheat planting intentions are down 646,000 acres from March intentions. Acreage cuts are now estimated in North Dakota (down 500,000, to 5.7 million); South Dakota (down 80,000, to 1.02 million); and Minnesota (down 40,000, to 1.31 million acres).

All cotton plantings are now estimated up 225,000 acres from March intentions. The bulk of the acreage increase is in Texas, which is up 200,000 from March intentions to 5.711 million acres.


CORN: 2.764 billion bu.; traders expected 2.856 billion bu.
-- compares to 5.399 bil. bu. Mar. 1 and 3.148 bil. bu. June 1, 2012
SOYBEANS: 435 million bu; traders expected 441 million bu.
-- compares to 999 mil. bu. Mar. 1 and 667 mil. bu. June 1, 2012
WHEAT: 718 million bu.; traders expected 750 million bu.
-- compares to 1.234 bil. bu. Mar. 1 and 743 mil. bu. June 1, 2012

Let's start with wheat. June 1 stocks of 718 million bu. is the final 2012-13 carryover tally and compares to the 734 million bu. estimated in the June Supply & Demand Report. The estimate is well below the average pre-report trade estimate, as well.

Wheat stocks in all positions were down 3% from year-ago with on-farm stocks at 120 million bu. (up 7% from year-ago) and off-farm stocks at 598 million bushels (down 5% from year-ago). Indicated disappearance in the last quarter of the 2012-13 marketing year for wheat was 516 million bu., up 13% from the same period last year.

June 1 corn stocks came in 92 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Corn stocks in all position were down 12% from year-ago. Of the total, 1.26 billion bu. are stored on-farm, down 15% from year-ago. Off-farm stocks of 1.5 billion bu. are down 10% from last year. Indicated disappearance in the third quarter of the 2012-13 marketing year is 2.64 billion bu., compared to 2.88 billion bu. during the same quarter last year.

June 1 soybean stocks came in 6 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Soybeans stored in all positions are down 35% from year-ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 171 million bu., down 4% from last year. Off-farm stocks at 263 million bu. are off 46% from year-ago. (If you're wondering why bean basis is so strong, there's your answer.) Indicated disappearance in the third quarter of the 2012-13 marketing year for soybeans is 516 million bu., up 13% from the same period last year.

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