PF Reaction to Prospective Plantings, Grain Stocks Report

March 30, 2012 03:34 AM
 

** PROSPECTIVE PLANTINGS REPORT **

  • CORN: 95.9 mil. acres; trade expected 94.7 mil. acres
    -- compares to 91.921 mil. acres in 2011
  • SOYBEANS: 73.9 mil. acres; traders expected 75.5 mil. acres
    -- compares to 74.976 mil. acres in 2011
  • ALL WHEAT: 55.9 mil. acres; traders expected 57.6 mil. acres
    -- compares to 54.409 mil. acres in 2011
  • SPRING WHEAT: 12.0 mil. acres; traders expected 13.4 mil. acres
    -- compares to 12.394 mil. acres in 2011
  • DURUM WHEAT: 2.2 mil. acres; traders expected 2.3 mil. acres
    -- compares to 1.369 mil. acres in 2011
  • COTTON: 13.2 mil. acres; traders expected 12.74 mil. acres
    -- compares to 14.732 mil. acres in 2011


That's a big number for 2012 corn planting intentions! It beat the average pre-report trade estimate by about 1.5 million acres and even topped the top end of the pre-report trade guess range.

That's a small number for 2012 soybean planting intentions! It fell short of the average pre-report trade estimate by about 1.5 million acres and is even below the bottom end of the pre-report guess range.

Results of USDA's survey of planting intentions for corn and soybeans are near "perfectly opposite" compared to pre-report expectations.

For corn, we're going to take a bit of a different look at the shifts in acres from last year. We'll give you three lists. The first is of states that traditionally beat the national average corn yield. The second list will be of states that traditionally drag down the national average yield. The third list will be states that traditionally have state average yields close to the national average yield.

States that lift the national average yield: Illinois is the only high-yielding state with lower-than-year-ago planting intentions. The NASS survey shows Illinois corn planting intentions down 100,000 acres from 2011. Acreage increases in high-yield states are expected in: Indiana (up 200,000); Iowa (up 500,000); Minnesota (up 600,000); Nebraska (up 450,000); Ohio (up 400,000); and Wisconsin (up 50,000).

States that typically weigh on the national average corn yield: Kansas corn planting intentions are down 200,000 from year-ago. Corn acreage increases are expected in: North Dakota (up 1.17 million); and South Dakota (up 300,000). Missouri corn acres are expected steady with year-ago. "Other" lower-yielding corn states across the South have a net gain in corn planting intentions of 375,000 acres.

The state that typically matches up with the national average yield: Michigan corn acres are expected up 100,000 from last year.

Results: High-yielding corn states are expected to increase total corn plantings 2.1 million acres from 2011; Lower-yielding corn states are expected to increase corn acres 1.645 million. "Even-yielding" corn acreage is up 100,000 from year-ago. Of the 3.943-million-acre increase in expected corn plantings over year-ago, 53.3% are in higher-yielding states; 41.7% are in lower-yielding states. (Some states in the northeast and northwest didn't get in this analysis for now.)

For soybeans, acreage increases over 2011 are expected in: Illinois (up 100,000); North Dakota (up 200,000); and South Dakota (up 200,000). Soybean acreage is expected to be unchanged from year-ago in Arkansas and Ohio. Fewer acres are expected to be planted to soybeans in Indiana (down 200,000); Iowa (down 550,000); Kansas (down 100,000); Minnesota (down 200,000); Missouri (down 250,000); and Nebraska (down 200,000). Spring wheat seeding intentions are 1.4 million below the average pre-report trade estimate, which dragged the all-wheat seeding intentions 1.7 million acres below the average pre-report trade guess. Intended durum wheat seedings are expected just 100,000 acres below trade guesses.

Cotton... what can we say about cotton! Despite recent price pressure against advancing soybean prices, cotton producers expect to plant nearly 500,000 acres more than trade expectations.


** QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS **

  • CORN: 6.01 billion bu.; traders expected 6.151 billion bu.
    -- compares to 9.642 bil. bu. Dec. 1; 6.523 bil. bu. Mar. 1, 2011
  • SOYBEANS: 1.37 billion bu; traders expected 1.381 billion bu.
    -- compares to 2.366 bil. bu. Dec. 1; 1.249 bil. bu. Mar. 1, 2011
  • WHEAT: 1.20 billion bu.; traders expected 1.235 billion bu.
    -- compares to 1.656 bil. bu. Dec. 1; 1.425 bil. bu. Mar. 1, 2011

Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 came in 141 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate and down 8% from year-ago. Of the total, 3.19 billion bu. are stored on-farm, down 6.0% from year-ago. Off-farm stocks at 2.82 billion bu. are down 10% from year-ago. Implied use in the second quarter of the 2011-12 marketing year is a record 3.64 billion bushels. Compared to the same quarter last year, corn use is up 3.1%.

Soybean stocks in all positions on March 1 came in 11 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate and up 10% from year-ago. On-farm stocks are put at 555 million bu., up 10% from year-ago. Off-farm stocks are estimated at 817 million bu., up 10% from year-ago. Implied use in the second quarter of the 2011-12 marketing year is 998 million bu., down 3% from year-ago.

Wheat stocks in all positions on March 1 came in 35 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate and down 16% from year-ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 217 million bu., down 25% from year-ago. Off-farm stocks are estimated at 983 million bu., down 14% from year-ago. Implied use in the third quarter of the 2011-12 marketing year is 462 million bu., down 9% from the same quarter last year.



 

** WHAT ARE THE CALLS? **

This should turn out to be a "dream day" for corn spreaders. Old-crop supplies are tighter than expected and planting intentions are well above pre-report trade expectations. Surprisingly, opening calls from the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade seem to suggest traders believe corn planting intentions have been estimated a touch too high. Old-crop corn futures are expected to open 10 to 15 cents higher with new-crop corn futures near steady. Soybean future are called 20 to 30 cents higher and wheat is expected to open 10 to 15 cents higher.


 

 

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