December corn futures were trading down 5 1/2 cents ahead of the release of this morning's USDA reports and are now around 10 cents lower on pressure from the bigger-than-expected corn crop estimate. November soybean futures were down 8 1/2 cents ahead of the report and are now trading 24 cents higher on support from the smaller-than-expected crop estimate. December SRW wheat futures were 3 3/4 cents lower ahead of the report and are little changed following the report. Cotton futures are trading near steady following the reports.
CORN: 13.843 billion bu.; trade expected 13.646 billion bu.
-- compares to Aug. est. of 13.763 billion bu.; 10.780 billion bu. in 2012
BEANS: 3.149 million bu.; trade expected 3.149 billion bu.
-- compares to Aug. est. of 3.255 billion bu.; 3.015 billion bu. in 2012
COTTON: 12.9 million bales; trade expected 13.18 million bales
-- compares to Aug. est. of 13.055 million bales; 17.315 million bales in 2012
USDA puts the national average corn yield at 155.3 bu. per acre, up 0.9 bu. per acre from the August estimate. Much of the increase in state-by-state yields was in the western Corn Belt with South Dakota up 7 bu. per acre from August at 145 bu. per acre; Nebraska up 3 bu. per acre at 164 bu.; and Kansas up 9 bu. per acre at 125 bu. per acre.
Strong yields are also expected across the South with record yields now estimated in Louisiana (175 bu.), Mississippi (170 bu.), Alabama (145 bu.), Georgia (183 bu.), South Carolina (127 bu.), North Carolina (132 bu.) and Tennessee (152 bu. per acre).
Yield estimates held steady or declined in the middle of the Corn Belt with Minnesota steady at 166 bu. per acre; Iowa down 1 bu., to 162 bu. per acre; Missouri down 5 bu., to 125 bu. per acre; and Wisconsin down 1 bu., to 143 bu. per acre.
Yields held steady in the eastern Corn Belt with Illinois at 165 bu. per acre, Indiana at 166 bu. per acre and Ohio at 172 bu. per acre.
In the northern corn production states, North Dakota's yield is down 5 bu. from last month at 111 bu. per acre and Michigan's corn yield is steady with August at a record 158 bu. per acre.
USDA made no change to corn planted or harvested acreage estimates. Those changes will likely be made in the October Crop Production Report.
In the objective yield states, USDA estimates a record number of ears per acre, up from the August ear count. The average ear weight is estimated at about 0.311 lbs., down from about 0.319 lbs. estimated in August.
USDA puts the national average soybean yield at 41.2 bu. per acre, down 1.4 bu. from the August estimate. Only Pennsylvania (50 bu. per acre) and Ohio (49 bu. per acre, down 1 bu. from August) are expected to see a record soybean yield this year.
Most of the Midwest states saw yield declines on soybeans from last month: North Dakota down 3 bu. (29 bu. per acre), South Dakota down 1 bu. (35 bu.), Minnesota down 2 bu. (39 bu.), Iowa down 3 bu. (43 bu.), Missouri down 4 bu. (35 bu.), Wisconsin down 2 bu. (40 bu.), Illinois down 1 bu. (46 bu.), Indiana down 2 bu. (48 bu.), Michigan down 2 bu. (43 bu.) and Ohio.
Southern soybean yields either held steady or increased slightly from the August estimates.
USDA made no change to soybean planted or harvested estimates. Again, those changes are likely in the October Crop Production Report.
USDA's objective yield estimate includes the second-lowest number of pods in 18 square feet since at least 2004. The pod count is only higher than in 2012.
Very surprisingly, USDA is estimating the second heaviest pod weight since 2004, again second only to last year's record pod weight that was helped by late-season rains resulting from Hurricane Isaac. With very little late-season rain to support pod weight, this may be a source of an even lower bean yield estimate in the October Crop Production Report.
USDA now puts the national average cotton yield at 796 lbs. per acre, down 17 lbs. from the August estimate. USDA did, however, increase harvested acres by 78,000 from August.
2012-13 U.S. CARRYOVER
CORN: 661 million bu.; down sharply from Aug. est. of 719 million bu.
-- compares to 989 million bu. in 2011-12
BEANS: 125 million bu.; unch from Aug. est. of 125 million bu.
-- compares to 169 million bu. in 2011-12
COTTON: 3.9 million bales; up from Aug. est. of 3.8 million bales
-- compares to 3.35 million bales in 2011-12
USDA cut estimated old-crop corn carryover 58 million bu. from August. On the supply side, USDA cut estimated imports 3 million bu., to 162 million bushels. On the demand side, USDA increased estimated feed & residual use by 25 million (4.475 billion), increased food, seed & industrial use 10 million bu. (6.06 billion -- corn-for-ethanol use was increased 15 million bu., to 4.665 billion bu. and other FSI use was cut 5 million bu.) and estimates exports were increased 20 million bu., to 735 million bushels. USDA now puts the national average on-farm old-crop cash price at $6.90, down a nickel from the midpoint of last month's price range.
USDA left old-crop soybean carryover unchanged at 125 million bushels. USDA increased old-crop bean imports 5 million bu. to push up total supplies by that amount. On the demand side, USDA increased estimated crush by 5 million bu. to offset the increase in supply. USDA puts the national average on-farm old-crop cash soybean price at $14.40, unchanged from August.
Old-crop cotton carryover is estimated up 100,000 bales from last month. Domestic use was increased by 50,000 bales, but that increase was more than offset by a 70,000-bale cut to estimated exports and an 80,000-bale reduction to unaccounted use. USDA left the national average on-farm old-crop cash cotton price at 72 cents, unchanged from last month.
2013-14 U.S. CARRYOVER
CORN: 1.855 billion bu.; up from Aug. proj. of 1.837 billion bu.
-- trade expected 1.697 billion bu.
BEANS: 150 million bu.; down sharply from Aug. proj. of 220 million bu.
-- trade expected 161 million bu.
WHEAT: 561 million bu.; up from Aug. proj. of 551 million bu.
-- trade expected 556 million bu.
COTTON: 2.9 million bales; up from Aug. proj. of 2.8 million bales
-- trade expected 2.97 million bales
New-crop corn carryover is up 18 million bu. from August and is 158 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. All of the increase in carryover is on the supply side of the balance sheet (bigger crop, smaller imports and smaller beginning stocks) as there are no changes on the demand side. USDA puts the national average new-crop corn price at $4.40 to $5.20, down a dime on both ends of the range from August.
New-crop soybean carryover was slashed 70 million bu. from August and came in 11 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies were cut 107 million bu. due to the smaller crop estimate. On the demand side, USDA cut estimated crush 20 million bu. (to 1.655 billion bu.), estimated exports 15 million bu. (to 1.37 billion bu.) and residual use 1 million bu. (to 28 million bushels). USDA now puts the national average on-farm new-crop cash bean price at $11.50 to $13.50, up $1.15 on both ends of the range from last month.
Wheat carryover is up 10 million bu. from August and is 5 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased wheat imports 10 million bu., to raise total supplies by that amount. USDA made no changes on the demand side of the balance sheets. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $6.50 to $7.50, up a dime on the bottom end of the range and down a dime on the top end of the range from last month.
New-crop cotton carryover is up 100,000 bales from last month and is 70,000 bales below the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supply was cut by 50,000 bales, the result of a bigger beginning stocks estimate and a smaller crop estimate compared to last month. On the demand side, USDA cut estimated exports 200,000 bales from August, to 10.4 million bales. USDA also added 50,000 bales to unaccounted use.
2013-14 GLOBAL CARRYOVER
CORN: 151.42 MMT; up from Aug. proj. of 150.17 MMT
-- 122.59 MMT for 2012-13
BEANS: 71.54 MMT; down from Aug. proj. of 72.27 MMT
-- 61.55 MMT for 2012-13
WHEAT: 176.28 MMT; up from Aug. proj. of 172.99 MMT
-- 173.85 MMT for 2012-13
COTTON: 94.73 mil. bales; up from Aug. proj. of 93.77 mil. bales
-- 86.04 MMT for 2012-13
2013-14 GLOBAL PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS
ARGENTINA BEANS: 53.5 MMT; compares to 53.5 MMT in August
-- 49.4 MMT for 2012-13
BRAZIL BEANS: 88.0 MMT; compares to 85.0 MMT in August
-- 82.0 MMT for 2012-13
ARGENTINA WHEAT: 12.0 MMT; compares to 12.0 MMT in August
-- 10.0 MMT for 2012-13
AUSTRALIA WHEAT: 25.5 MMT; compares to 25.5 MMT in August
-- 22.08 MMT for 2012-13
CHINA WHEAT: 121.0 MMT; compares to 121.0 MMT in August
-- 121.0 MMT for 2012-13
CANADA WHEAT: 31.5 MMT; compares to 29.5 MMT in August
-- 27.21 MMT for 2012-13
EU WHEAT: 142.9 MMT; compares to 141.37 MMT in August
-- 133.05 MMT for 2012-13
RUSSIA WHEAT: 54.0 MMT; compares to 54.0 MMT in August
-- 37.72 MMT for 2012-13
FSU-12 WHEAT: 107.96 MMT; compares to 106.96 MMT in August
-- 77.21 MMT for 2012-13
CHINA CORN: 211.0 MMT; compares to 211.0 MMT in August
-- 205.6 MMT for 2012-13
ARGENTINA CORN: 26.0 MMT; compares to 27.0 MMT in August
-- 26.5 MMT for 2012-13
SOUTH AFRICA CORN: 13.0 MMT; compares to 13.0 MMT in August
-- 12.2 MMT for 2012-13
BRAZIL CORN: 72.0 MMT; compares to 72.0 MMT in August
-- 81.0 MMT for 2012-13
CHINA COTTON: 33.0 mil. bales; compares to 33.0 mil. bales in August
-- 35.0 MMT for 2012-13